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That bodes ill for the 13 Western hostages, nine of them Americans, currently being held in Lebanon. Last week President Bush adopted a wait-and- see stance. He called on Iran to help seek the hostages' release and dismissed the prospect of any overtures toward Tehran's new leadership. "They have been a terrorist state," Bush said. "As soon as they move away from oppression and extremism of that nature, we will review our relationship." Iran, meanwhile, announced that it will not assist in seeking the hostages' freedom until frozen Iranian assets are released by the U.S. and unless Washington helps locate four Iranians missing in Lebanon.
The first reliable indications of Iran's future course are not likely to emerge until after the presidential election, scheduled for Aug. 18. At that time, voters will also be presented with a referendum proposing constitutional changes that would strengthen the presidency. If Rafsanjani wins as expected, he will be faced with reviving an economy so dysfunctional that only a thriving black market prevents widespread shortages of basic commodities. If Khamenei proves to be a weak leader, he could be toppled at that time. Once its new leadership is in place, Iran will confront a fundamental decision: whether to remain in a medieval morass or re-enter the modern world that the Imam so breathtakingly defied.