(2 of 3)
Iran's clerics may have thwarted those threats, at least temporarily, by moving swiftly to fill the power vacuum created by Khomeini's passing. Less than 24 hours after his death, the 83-member Council of Experts designated President Ali Khamenei the country's new spiritual leader. While it is uncertain that Khamenei can retain the post, his quick appointment headed off the ascent of more radical potential successors. The Revolutionary Guards, the regular army and several of Iran's leading political figures, including Parliamentary Speaker Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, quickly closed ranks behind the new leader. "For the moment," says Bernard Hourcade, a French expert on Iran, "the clerics have shown exemplary moderation."
Khamenei, 49, who upon his selection was apparently elevated from a lower clerical rank to the status of ayatullah, was a compromise choice. During his career, he has played the role of both hard-line mullah and political pragmatist. A moralistic religious scholar who comes from a family of religious scholars, Khamenei has gained public renown by delivering fiery speeches at Friday prayers. Arrested at least six times during the Shah's reign, Khamenei has also been the target of the opposition People's Mujahedin. In 1981 he was seriously injured by a bomb. His right arm was permanently crippled, and his vocal cords were damaged. Since that year, Khamenei has held the post of President and has seesawed between denouncing the West and seeking to renew Iran's ties with it.
Khamenei, however, is no Khomeini. In the months ahead, he could be vulnerable to power grabs by other contenders to the throne. They probably do not include Ahmed Khomeini, a radical cleric who played an increasingly visible role in the months his father lay dying. Although revered by some, the younger Khomeini is ridiculed by others, who perceive him as a weakling.
But Speaker Rafsanjani, who is also Commander in Chief of the armed forces, is definitely somebody to watch. Last week he announced his candidacy for the presidency, and he is expected to win the contest, scheduled for August. Though he is a leader of the relative pragmatists within the government, Rafsanjani's reputation for moderation has yet to be tested. On those occasions when the political winds in Iran have blown toward less hostile relations, Rafsanjani has expressed a desire to improve ties with the outside world.
Western leaders are wisely remaining cautious about the fickle mullahs. It is unlikely that Iran's attitude toward its enemies will take a pronounced turn for the better anytime soon. While some Western analysts detect signs that Iran's foreign policy will eventually moderate, others warn that none of Khomeini's heirs can run the risk of appearing to betray the Ayatullah's revolution. "They believe that challenging the West is what gives them legitimacy," says former U.S. Secretary of State Henry Kissinger.