(9 of 9)
Most Western observers assume that the gulf war, Saddam's vehicle to assume the mantle once worn by the Shah, cannot go on for too long. Unless resupplied by the Soviets, the Iraqis do not have the capability to wage a protracted battle, especially if they try to push deeper inland than the farthest penetration—45 miles—they claimed by week's end.
Iran, which bought virtually all of its military equipment from the U.S., lacks spare parts for its arms, thanks to the U.S. embargo. Considering the shortages believed to exist, the Iranian performance and relatively quick reaction to the Iraqi thrusts were unexpected, and Iran may well be girding for sustained combat. But so long as it holds the U.S. hostages, the Washington tap is not likely to open.
If Iraq chooses to prolong the conflict, it will almost certainly be to inflict such punishment on the Iranian economy and military machine that they will not be a major factor in the gulf for some time to come. Iraqi Defense Minister Khairallah reiterated last week that his country coveted "not one inch of Iranian territory" beyond that "usurped" by Iran.
As it is, says one senior British official, "the Iraqis do not have the capa bility to mount an expeditionary force into central Iran." Nor, in the British assessment, is Baghdad eager to occupy all of oil-rich Khuzistan. Such a venture would alienate neighboring Kuwait and the other conservative gulf states that Saddam has been courting.
Seldom has a war over such relatively simple issues for those waging it had so many dangerous, unpredictable and complex ramifications. A large match was lit last week in a very flammable part of the globe. The uncontrolled fires that now darken the skies over the refineries of Basra and Abadan are apt symbols for the gulf war.
—By Spencer Davidson. Reported by William Drozdiak/Basra and WilliamStewart/Beirut.