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State-by-state political arithmetic is even more cheering to Republican planners. They are counting on an all but solid West and South, with the possible exception of Texas, to give Reagan a long head start toward winning the 270 electoral votes necessary for a second term. Right now they can identify only four states in which Reagan looks like a probable loser: Maryland, Massachusetts, Minnesota and West Virginia. In the other 46 states he seems to have a solid chance.
Reagan's political advisers expect the biggest issue to be, as usual, the state of voters' wallets. Right now, they are robust. The economy is enjoying strong increases in production, jobs and incomes, and inflation is at an eleven-year low. Deficits are a problem to which the President cannot afford to appear indifferent, but his advisers doubt that they will weigh decisively with many voters, unless the red ink threatens to choke off the recovery or spur a new round of inflation. Says Ed Rollins, director of the Reagan-Bush '84 Committee: "I don't think they can beat us on economic issues."
Nonetheless, not one of Reagan's advisers regards the race as a cinch. They remember uneasily that in January 1980 Jimmy Carter held a 29-point lead over Reagan in the Gallup poll. Most Reaganites expect the campaign to turn close by the time the nation casts its ballots.
If Reagan is strong on economics, he is vulnerable on foreign policy. Polls for the White House show a marked increase in the number of voters who are afraid of war, largely because of the icy state of relations with the Soviet Union, and Republican strategists worry about a revival of Reagan's 1980 image as "trigger happy." The vulnerability of the Marines in Lebanon is a sore point; 49% of the people questioned in last week's Times/CBS poll wanted them brought home, vs. only 35% in October. "If Lebanon is in no better shape during the campaign than it is today, that could be a real problem," says Nevada Senator Paul Laxalt, Reagan's close friend and chairman of his campaign committee. Laxalt adds, "We have told Reagan that as we travel around the country, we find people are nervous about a new cold war. They don't like it when the two superpowers don't talk."
Reagan also is likely to be hurt by the fairness issue, basically a belief that his tax and budget cuts have favored the white and wealthy over the poor, blacks, Hispanics and other minorities. Partly because of the fairness issue and partly because of the perceived aggressiveness of U.S. foreign policy, Reagan has made little progress in closing the gender gap; his support among women in the latest polls is 12% lower than among men.
What worries the President's aides more than anything else is the simple fact that many more voters think of themselves as Democrats than as Republicans.