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But that relationship is still not as strong or as binding as Syria's Assad would have liked. Some Arab diplomats said they expected Assad to come home from Moscow with a "super treaty" obligating the U.S.S.R. to provide Syria with unlimited military aid and perhaps even to intervene on Syria's behalf in a Middle East war. But the Soviets refused to commit themselves that far. By limiting their obligations to Syria, they hoped to minimize the fear and resentment the pact has inevitably evoked in Jordan and Iraq. In addition, the Soviets recognize that as long as Assad is politically isolated among his neighbors and vulnerable to internal opposition, the survival of his regime is not a sure thing. Nor, for that matter, is the survival of Saddam Hussein in Iraq or the Ayatullah Khomeini in Iran. Either or both leaders could still be swept away by the war they are now waging. Saddam Hussein has gradually distanced himself from the Soviet Union, even though Iraq has a friendship treaty with Moscow very similar to the one Syria just signed. Another cause of friction: Saddam Hussein has also been cracking down on pro-Moscow Communists inside Iraq. "To say that an Iraqi victory would be a Soviet victory is nonsense," says Arabist James Akins, a former U.S. Ambassador to Saudi Arabia. "Saddam Hussein is No. 1 on the Soviet hit list."
But the fact remains that the Soviet Union is still No. 1 on Saddam Hussein's military shopping list. Iraqi reliance on Soviet arms gives Moscow a certain amount of influence on Baghdad, no matter how vigorously Saddam Hussein asserts his independence.
Any military equipment reaching Iraq arrives first at the Jordanian Red Sea port of Aqaba. TIME'S Robert Slater last week took a helicopter tour of the area and saw dramatic evidence of that resupply in action: "Normally Aqaba is a sleepy port town, one that has always lagged far behind the nearby Israeli resort of Eilat in tourist traffic as well as commerce.
Now Aqaba's harbor is bristling with vessels ready to off-load war supplies. They are lined up like runners crowded together waiting to begin a cross-country race." The Soviets are apparently providing Iraq with spare parts, food and ammunition diverted from South Yemen and Ethiopia. U.S. intelligence sources, however, were satisfied that so far there have been no Soviet shipments of lethal heavy weaponry —tanks, missiles and the like—to Iraq.
As for Iran, the Soviets would almost certainly like to replace the U.S. as the arms supplier to the Tehran government. There is also the possibility that Iran could simply disintegrate into chaos. The Soviets would clearly be pleased to pick up some of the pieces as long as they could do so without risking a major confrontation with the U.S. Nonetheless, U.S. intelligence has uncovered no evidence that the Soviets are directly fanning the fighting on the Iranian side by infiltrating arms. The Kremlin, in short, seems to be behaving like a well-heeled but very cautious, very patient gambler—placing bets all over the table, but only ones that it can afford to lose.