(5 of 8)
That makes the Israelis all the more nervous, since those weapons could be used against their own air force in a new, wider Middle East war. For tactical reasons, Saddam Hussein has softened his rhetoric when talking to conservative fellow Arabs, but he has not significantly muted his denunciations of Zionism. Israel fears that Iraq's new French-built nuclear research center may eventually produce an atomic bomb. Israeli Prime
Minister Menachem Begin told the London Sunday Telegraph that Jordanian-Iraqi military cooperation "is very serious to us." Such warnings have heightened worries in the West that Israel could feel compelled to launch a pre-emptive strike against Iraq if Iraq emerges from this war too cocky and powerful.
Saddam Hussein, however, is in no position to dominate the gulf until he wins the war. The Iraqis expected a quick victory when they launched their surprise attack on Iran nearly a month ago. Saddam Hussein had hoped that the Khomeini regime would crumble under the first attacks. Now he needs to turn the stalemate into a clear-cut victory, or at least to extricate himself with some face-saving diplomatic fallback. Otherwise, Iraq's strongman runs the risk of falling victim to the same kind of coup that he engineered against a number of his former comrades and superiors in the on-again, off-again bloodbath of Iraqi politics.
For the superpowers, too, the burst of activity on the battlefields, in the back alleys and in the chancelleries of the Middle East represents at least as many risks as opportunities. The Soviet Union's principal move was to sign a 20-year friendship treaty with Syria two weeks ago. Israeli officials, TIME has learned, believe that the pact includes a secret annex granting the U.S.S.R. naval facilities at the Syrian port of Latakia, airbases manned by Soviet personnel, and depots for storing war materiel. If this intelligence is correct, the Soviets may have added a pawn or two to their side of the board in the chess game they are playing with the U.S. in the area. The U.S. earlier this year negotiated agreements for access to military facilities in Kenya, Somalia and Oman; it also has close ties with Egypt and is building up its Indian Ocean fleet. That network is intended to counter the Soviet military presence in Afghanistan, Ethiopia and South Yemen. Now U.S. military planners may have to reckon with Moscow's closer Syrian connection as well.