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One of Mondale's first moves was to level with voters and tell them that if elected, he would raise taxes to cut the deficit. His candor cost him. About a quarter of voters cited the potential of a tax increase as their reason for voting against Mondale. Interestingly, 55% said that the next President will probably have to raise taxes, but 43% of them voted for Reagan anyway, even though he has pledged not to seek a tax hike. The only issue that seems to have cut against Reagan was military spending. One in five voters cited it as the main factor influencing their votes, and 61% of those voted for Mondale.
Leadership was the determining issue for 28% of voters, and 83% of them chose Reagan. Asked what they disliked most about Mondale, more Reagan voters (40%) cited his being a "weak leader" than any other factor. Asked what they liked about Mondale, voters more often cited "fairness" (48%) than any other quality.
The Democrats had counted on a massive turnout to propel Mondale into the White House. Early signs indicated that the turnout actually dropped slightly, continuing a 24-year trend. And despite the well-publicized registration efforts of Democrats, new voters went overwhelmingly for Reagan by 61% to 39%.
The scope of Reagan's support among all groups and regions is profoundly disquieting to Democrats. It could in fact be the death knell for the Democratic majority forged during the New Deal. But does it herald a new era of Republican dominance? Even though 38% of the electorate still call themselves Democrats, the exit polls did show an increase in the percentage of voters identifying themselves as Republicans, from 27% in 1980 to 32% in this election. Perhaps more important, more of those under 24 now use the Republican than the Democratic label.
Many voters were clearly casting their ballots for Ronald Reagan the man, not for the Republican Party. Said Vincent Rakowitz, 65, a retired brewery worker from San Antonio: "He really isn't like a Republican. He's more like an American, which is what we really need." The real message of Tuesday's vote—particularly from young voters who hold the key to future elections—may be that no political party can count on any group's automatic allegiance any more. A candidate with national appeal can win an election without catering to the interests of individual voting blocs. "Reagan does not have to target a set of issues for blue-collar workers, a program for Hispanics or women," says Pollster Wirthlin. "He appeals to all Americans." —By Evan Thomas. Reported by Joseph N. Boyce/Atlanta and John E. Yang/ Washington, with other bureaus