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Only blacks voted overwhelmingly for Mondale, choosing him by 91% to 9%. To some black political strategists, that is ominous news. They fear the Democratic Party will move sharply to the right in order to recover all the other voting groups that have forsaken it. Says Ronald Walters, a Howard University political scientist who was Jesse Jackson's deputy campaign manager: "There will not be many people left who are willing to listen to the concerns of the Rainbow Coalition."
Another traditionally Democratic constituency, Jewish voters, opted for Mondale by 65% to 35%, and Hispanics sided with him by 69% to 31%. Mondale also picked up three-quarters of those who had voted for Independent John Anderson in 1980. Union members, who once marched as a Democratic phalanx, split almost evenly. Reagan's 47% support among union households represented a 5-point improvement over his 1980 total.
The gender gap? Women chose Reagan over Mondale by 55% to 45%, while men went for the President by 64% to 36%. From the beginning, Mondale's weakest support was among white males. "The problem was leadership," says Edward Reilly, a Boston-based pollster who did extensive surveys for Mondale. "Mondale became the candidate who kowtowed to special interests. Men thought he was saying to them, 'I'm going to take something away from you, white males, and give it to someone else.' "
Geraldine Ferraro appears to have hurt Mondale at the polls more than she helped him, even with women. Overall, 16% of those polled by NBC said they were more likely to vote Democratic because of her, while 26% said they were less likely; the rest said she made no difference. Among women, 24% said her presence on the ticket made them less likely to vote Democratic, 19% more likely. Roman Catholics chose Reagan by 56% to 44%; in 1980, Reagan took the Catholic vote by only 47% to 43%. Republican strategists believe Ferraro, a Catholic, lost votes by tangling with the Catholic bishops over abortion.
The more voters earned, the more likely they were to vote for Reagan, according to ABC's exit polls. Only among the very poor did Mondale win big. Those earning less than $5,000 a year chose the Democrat by 69% to 31%, while those in the $5,000-to-$10,000 range supported Mondale 53% to 46%. Voters earning between $10,000 and $20,000 went for Reagan by 52% to 48%, and those who made more than $50,000 annually gave him a lopsided 68% to 32%.
Americans have always voted their pocketbooks, and this election was no exception. A full 49% said they were better off today than they were four years ago; not surprisingly, 84% of those voters went for Reagan. Only 20% said they were worse off, and 85% of them voted for Mondale. "People see things around them are better, and they give Reagan credit for it," says Pollster Wirthlin.