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It is hard to believe, however, that even the lowliest peasant is totally unaware that his country faces an uncertain and perhaps worrisome future. Dominated for a quarter of a century by the ideas and personality of one man, China has yet to go through the experience, always wrenching in a one-party state, of a transferal of supreme state power. But Mao Tse-tung is now 81; although apparently in command of his party, he is physically very feeble. His much heralded meetings with foreign dignitaries, held usually in his book-lined study, are always spur-of-the-moment affairs, apparently because his doctors never know when he will be strong enough to take the strain of a visit. Last week he had an unscheduled meeting with Mrs. Ferdinand Marcos, wife of the Philippine President. A few weeks ago, he went to the seaside resort of Peitaiho, 170 miles from the capital, to meet Togolese President Etienne Eyadéma, but most of the time he remains behind the thick walls of the old Forbidden City. Premier Chou Enlai, 76, Mao's versatile organization man, has spent most of the past two months in the hospital with what most analysts believe is a serious heart ailment. In the ruling Politburo, four of the 21 members are over 80, most are in their 70s, only four are under 60.
Succession, moreover, is not simply a matter of age. Since the devastating Cultural Revolution of 1966-69, Chou —with Mao's blessing—has gone a long way toward reconstituting the shattered party apparatus. But five years after reconstruction began, the task is only half completed. Of the 29 top party positions in China's provinces, eight are still vacant. China's military, 3.5 million strong, still has no Minister of Defense, no chief of staff and no top naval commander. The coalition of political interests that makes up the party leadership group remains awkwardly strained; military leaders try to hold on to the power they gained during the Cultural Revolution, while radicals and moderates jockey for position within the party.
Led by Mao's actress-wife Chiang Ching, 60, the party radicals are trying to keep ah've the intransigent revolutionary zeal of the Cultural Revolution. They see the pragmatic policies of Chou and the moderates threatening the purity of China's revolution. They are opposed, it seems, to Chou's tolerance of material incentives and his willingness to sacrifice ideological correctness for the sake of technical expertise. The most notable example is Chou's policy of detente with the West. Not only is accommodation with an imperialist country like the U.S. ideologically questionable, but trade with capitalist countries is contrary to China's goal of self-reliance.