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In addition, a U.S. naval group of some 25 vessels, including the battleship Iowa, has just finished amphibious maneuvers near Roosevelt Roads in Puerto Rico, where the aircraft carrier Nimitz is also steaming. While none of the exercises are directed at Nicaragua, Humberto Ortega Saavedra, Commander of the national army, voices typical Nicaraguan suspicion. Says he: "A powerful country like the U.S. has the luxury of threatening and then not following through. A country like Nicaragua can't ignore the threat."
In fact, crying wolf has some practical benefits for the Sandinistas. It draws international attention away from the nine-man National Directorate's continued stranglehold on power at home, despite the claims of pluralism attached to Nicaragua's much heralded elections.* The country's opposition politicians had hoped to discuss the distribution of power, among other issues, in a series of "national dialogue" meetings with the Sandinistas in Managua. Instead, the Sandinistas have tried to turn some of the dialogue meetings into propaganda sessions condemning U.S. "aggression." Says Enrique Bolanos Geyer, head of the Nicaraguan private enterprise group known as COSEP: "Fine, let's condemn aggression. But what about national problems?"
No problem is more serious for Nicaragua than its palsied economy. For the third consecutive year, the country is suffering a major trade deficit, projected to reach $400 million in 1984. Servicing the $3.5 billion foreign debt this year is expected to take all of Nicaragua's $400 million in export earnings. The regime has already missed one payment on about $7 million in loans to the World Bank. Says a European diplomat in Managua: "The real danger here is not an invasion, it's the real possibility of the country going bankrupt. It's close to the brink now."
The burdens of constant military mobilization are adding rapidly to those conditions. This year, the Sandinistas are expected to spend $500 million to keep 100,000 Nicaraguans under arms. That is about 25% of the national budget. "They can't take four more years of this," notes a sympathetic diplomat. "The comandantes know this." If so, they are not showing it.
—By George Russell. Reported by Ricardo Chavira/Managua and Bruce van Voorst/Washington
* Final results were announced last week: the Sandinistas received 63% of the 1.17 million votes cast, winning 61 seats in a new, 96-member National Assembly.