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The latest spasms arose, ironically enough, from a false alarm. On Election Day, someone in the U.S. Government leaked word, based on sketchy and unconfirmed spy-satellite information, that crated Soviet MiG-21 interceptors were about to be unloaded at Nicaragua's Pacific port of Corinto from the Soviet freighter Bakuriani. The U.S. has long warned Nicaragua that the arrival of MiG-21s or similar fighters would be "unacceptable," since such weapons would upset the regional balance of air power.
By the time the Bakuriani unloaded its crated cargo and returned to sea, Washington was persuaded that MiG-21s had not been delivered. One reason, indicated by Shultz, was a Soviet assurance to the contrary. Another was the information gleaned from the rash of U.S. spy-plane flights, more probably low-flying F-4 reconnaissance jets than the superfast, supersophisticated SR-71s claimed by the Sandinistas (no sonic boom from an SR-71 can be heard when the aircraft flies, as it can on spy missions, at an altitude of 15 miles or more).
The U.S. conclusion: Soviet-bloc ships, including the Bakuriani, have more than likely delivered SA3 and SA-8 antiaircraft missiles, advanced radar equipment that would complete Nicaragua's air-defense system, and a supply of MI-24 "Hind" helicopters. The choppers are heavily armed gunships that the Soviets use against rebellious tribesmen in Afghanistan; they are probably intended to flush out 6,000 of the U.S.-backed contra guerrillas, who have now moved permanently inside Nicaragua to carry on their hit-and-run war against the Sandinistas.
Nonetheless, the Pentagon kept up its threatening expressions of concern. Even without the MiG-21s, U.S. officials said, the arrival of the Bakuriani marked the first time the Soviets had sent weapons to Nicaragua under their own flag, rather than through such surrogates as Cuba or Bulgaria. U.S. military officials said last week that four more Soviet and East-bloc freighters were on their way to Nicaragua, without saying when the ships would arrive, or where. Said Pentagon Spokesman Burch: "Nicaragua has now armed itself to a greater degree or in quantities far greater than any of its neighbors, or even a coalition of its neighbors."
The Sandinista buildup is indeed impressive. Nicaragua's regular army and mobilized reserves now total 62,000, more than the armies of nearby El Salvador and Honduras combined. The U.S. estimates that Nicaragua has 150 tanks and 200 other armored vehicles, 200 antiaircraft guns and 300 missile launchers, in addition to perhaps 18 of the fearsome Hinds. By contrast El Salvador, Guatemala and Honduras combined have 53 tanks and 104 armored vehicles; none of them has any advanced missile system. Neighboring Costa Rica has only a poorly equipped 9,800-member civil guard.
The Pentagon, moreover, maintains that the Sandinistas still want the MiGs and intend to get them. U.S. military officials also charged that five airfields are either currently receiving improvements or under construction in Nicaragua; at least one of them might be used for stopovers by Soviet long-range Backfire bombers. Bases in Nicaragua, says a Pentagon official, "would enormously facilitate Soviet reconnaissance flights over America's West Coast."