(9 of 11)
Scientists also believe that any satellite antimissile system could lead to more emphasis on low-flying missiles, like the cruise, that would not be vulnerable to space defenses. The satellites could also be vulnerable. "Many potential counters, such as decoys or space mines, have the power to neutralize space-based systems," says Stanford University Physicist and Arms Control Expert Sidney Drell. His colleague Arthur Schawlow, who won the Nobel Prize for his work on developing the laser, agrees: "A laser battle station out in space would be a sitting duck."
The fact that new weapons could probably evade or destroy satellite defense systems makes the technology Reagan envisions incalculably expensive. "The offense can add dimensions to thwart or neutralize the defense for far less money than the cost of defensive systems," says Ramo. "Hence it's economically unsound." Jeremy Stone, director of the Federation of American Scientists, agrees. "The cost is unlimited," he says, "because what we try to do in defending the country, the Russians will attempt to negate by penetrating the system."
Even if such a system could survive, points out another Stanford physicist, Wolfgang Panofsky, it is "infeasible" to design a defense that will intercept all missiles. "It is possible to develop a system that can shoot down one missile, but that is a long cry from developing a system that does not leak," he says. Such shortcomings in a nuclear defense system clearly would be disastrous. Even if a system were 90% effective, the leakage of just a fraction of Moscow's 8,500 or so warheads could be devastating. Says Kosta Tsipis, co-director of a program in science and technology at M.I.T.: "The critical failure of all these defensive systems is that they must be perfect. Less than that and they are ruinous. What the President is offering is a cruel hoax."
Carl Sagan, the Cornell University astronomer and author, and Richard Garwin, a military expert at IBM's Watson Research Center, have prepared a petition of leading scientists opposing space weaponry. Sagan, who listened to Reagan's speech from a Syracuse hospital where he was recovering from an appendectomy, was so agitated that he pressed to have the manifesto completed for release this week. It concludes: "If space weapons are ever to be banned, this may be close to the last moment in which it can be done."