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In order to preserve an element of surprise in its announcement, the White House restricted discussions of the ABM plan to top officials on what is called a "close held" basis. Most congressional leaders were kept in the dark until the afternoon of the speech. So were most of those on the the political and policy staffs in the West Wing. The paragraphs in Reagan's speech on new defensive technologies were drafted separately and then blended into the speech by the President. The overriding factor in the timing and handling of the issue—one that discomfited a few senior aides—seemed to be the desire for intensive political impact rather than a careful consideration of the subject. The most important ramifications that the Administration has yet to address fully may be geopolitical rather than technological. What course will the Soviets take in response? Moscow, which has a lead in many applications of laser technology, seems unlikely to refrain from exploiting it. If both nations follow parallel roads into space, a new balance of forces could emerge. The President hopes that an emphasis on defensive weapons could be linked to a negotiated reduction in offensive missiles. But the Administration has not even begun to work out the possible contingencies involved in a Soviet-American military space race. If either side nears the point of deploying an ABM system first, the strategic situation could become dangerously destabilized, especially if offensive weapons have not yet been reduced.
What has been dubbed at the White House the "star wars add-on" actually tended to obscure the real substance of Reagan's speech, which was part of a series designed to rally support for his defense budget. In what staffers jokingly call the "Darth Vader" speech, Reagan told evangelical Christians meeting in Orlando, Fla., in early March that the Soviet empire was "the focus of evil in the modern world." This Thursday, the President will outline the U.S. position on European-based missiles in an address in Los Angeles and next week will make another speech on the need for the MX missile. In addition to presidential speeches, the Administration has been conducting classified briefings for Congressmen in the White House theater on the Soviet military threat.
Even with this concerted public relations offensive, the Administration will have serious trouble salvaging what it considers to be an acceptable defense budget in Congress. House Democrats last week passed their own version of a budget for fiscal 1984, which begins in October. Depending on how inflation is calculated, the Democratic plan raises defense spending by about 2% to 4%, compared with the more than 10% after-inflation boost that Reagan wants.