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Lost Soviet citizens will not take alarm at or even perceive the strains in the Kremlin leadership. Nor will they be much concerned about upheavals in the world Communist movement. But like Western Sovietologists, Russia's wage earners will be greatly interested in what party leaders have to say about the state of the economy. Reason: there can scarcely be anyone in the Soviet Union who has not been made aware by shortages of everything from sausages to auto tires that something has gone gravely awry.
The leadership is unlikely to be candid about the extent of the emergency. Says Glasgow University's Alec Nove, one of the West's ranking experts on Soviet economic affairs: "If they were prepared to come clean, they would say, 'Look, brothers and sisters, we're in a mess this year. We have a belt-tightening plan. Let's all pull together.' Instead they will talk mainly about achievements." Despite the brave talk, statistics released last December on the 1971-75 and the 1976-80 five-year plans indicate that there are genuine hardships ahead for many Soviet consumers.
The most notable troubles are in agriculture. Drought contributed to a disastrous harvest in 1975; because of an 83-million-ton grain shortage, the Soviets were obliged to buy 35 million tons from the U.S. and other foreign countries. The winter-wheat crop this year has already proved disappointing. Some Washington experts predict that shortages of bread and especially meat and dairy products will become so acute by next spring that strikes and even riots could break out. These disorders are most likely to occur in provincial towns, but not in Moscow and other big cities that hold high priorities for food distribution. The distress slaughter of cattle last autumn for lack of fodder will inevitably make meat scarce until at least 1980. The government apparently decided to sacrifice animal feed for the sake of bread, the staple of the Russian diet. But farmers, who are allowed to keep livestock on their small private plots, are buying bread and illegally feeding it to their cows, pigs and chickens. Thus it seems probable that most Soviet consumers will be busy combing the markets for food until the next harvest. By the law of averages, it ought to be better than last year's, which was the worst in a decade.