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Behind the facade of socialist pageantry and the rhetoric of fraternal solidarity lies another, incomparably more complex reality. Clearly, the congress marks a time for national stocktaking. New crises, problems and opportunities are at hand for the U.S.S.R. Leonid Brezhnev's decade-long rule is inexorably coming to its natural end, even though Kremlinologists no longer believe he will use the congress podium to announce his retirement. Whatever the state of his health, this is surely the last Party congress over which he will preside as General Secretary. Several others in the gerontocratic Politburo (average age: 66) will also not survive for another performance in the Palace of Congresses. Among the first to retire will probably be Arvid Pelshe, 77. Agriculture Minister Dmitri Polyansky, only 58, may be on the way out if a scapegoat is needed for farm failures.
Since there exists no formalized mechanism for a transfer of power in the U.S.S.R., a crisis inevitably occurs when a leader dies or is ousted. Many Kremlinologists believe that Brezhnev would prefer an orderly transition and a new regime that will continue his policies. Nonetheless, they predict a possibly lengthy power struggle under cover of a caretaker "collective leadership." If Brezhnev were to retire in the near future, his titular successor would probably be Politburo Member Andrei Kirilenko, 69, an old Brezhnev crony, who has acted for Brezhnev during his recent illnesses. Kiril Mazurov, 61, at present Kosygin's standin, is expected to inherit the premiership. Potential second-stage succes sors to Brezhnev's job include such relative youngsters as Fyodor Kulakov, 58, who supervises agriculture for the par ty, and Konstantin Katushev, 48, the Party Secretary in charge of keeping East European parties in line.
Speeches at the congress will un questionably herald Moscow's continuing triumphant leadership of the Communist world. In fact, ideological and tactical differences have sent at least a dozen Asian and European parties out of the Soviet orbit, and the Kremlin to day probably has less influence over the destiny of the international Communist movement than at any tune in history.
The Chinese party, now in the throes of its own policy and power struggle (TIME, Feb. 23) is still an implacable enemy; last month the Peking press denounced the Kremlin for "restoring capitalism and impoverishing the people." In Yugoslavia, President Josip Broz Tito has ordered mass arrests of people suspected of conspiring with Soviet agents to sub vert his government. The Kremlin has lately been embarrassed by the politi cal misjudgments of Portugal's aggressive Stalinist party. The huge 1,730,000member Italian party has now been joined by the 275,000-member French party in rejecting the Marxist model for Communism in their countries and in proclaiming (convincingly or not) their adherence to Western democratic principles. So troubled are relations of the foreign parties with Moscow on these and other issues that Brezhnev failed to convene a meeting of the European parties late last year.