(7 of 8)
But the steady rise of Soviet and Cuban military power in Africa is surely a problem that will continue to confront the West in varying ways. In the long run, the French are almost surely correct in believing that economic development will solve Africa's problem of external influences. Says a French official: "There will never be stability in a world that includes both Stone Age people and nuclear powers. Our African strategy is one of wellbeing. We're convinced Africans would rather eat than die." There is a degree of self-interest included in this view, for the French are vitally dependent on Africa's raw materials.
One ranking State Department official argues that the goal of U.S. policy should be to reduce opportunities for the Soviets and Cubans. The main ingredients: economic aid for shaky but potentially friendly regimes, plus diplomatic support and military assistance. "But not intervention," he adds. "No one wants intervention." Defense Secretary Harold Brown is known to favor the creation of a Persian Gulf strike force that would establish a symbolic U.S. presence in the area and would be available for occasional first-aid duty.
Administration officials believe they have forged a policy on Africa that will eventually reap rewards. They have placed the U.S. squarely on the side of majority rule in southern Africa. They have insisted on a settlement in Rhodesia that will provide not only the semblance of majority rule, but will include the nationalist organizations that are doing the present fighting. Through Andrew Young, they have established close new ties with a number of African leaders, and they have tried to bring an end to the all too common practice of supporting any regime, white or black, that professes to be antiCommunist. They have not, however, managed to deter the Russians and the Cubans from their various interventions. Says one U.S. official: "We simply haven't dealt with the strategic implications of the performance the Soviets have been putting on for the world."
Cyrus Vance favors a five-point approach to the problem of Communist influence. He believes it vital to provide continuing economic assistance, concentrating on moderate, nonaligned governments like those of Zambia and Tanzania. He would press the campaign for majority rule, especially in Rhodesia and Namibia. He would give limited military assistance to countries that feel threatened by Communist adventurism. He would encourage the French, the moderate Arabs and others to use their influence in Africa. And if all of this fails to deter the Soviets and the Cubans, he would make them pay a high price for their troublemaking by withholding vital forms of American cooperation. One U.S. diplomat notes, however, that "we have very little leverage against the Cubans."
The British government believes that a Rhodesian accord, along the lines of the Anglo-American proposals, would be the best immediate step the West could take toward obtaining greater stability in Africa. Such a settlement, say the British, could lead eventually to the creation of a solid bloc of nonaligned states stretching northward from Zimbabwe and Zambia through Tanzania and Kenya.