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Until now, the Carter Administration has reacted to the Soviet-Cuban challenge in Africa with considerable restraint. But the latest invasion of Zaïre and the resulting massacre at Kolwezi appear to have changed that. Late last week U.S. Secretary of State Cyrus Vance met Soviet Foreign Minister Andrei Gromyko in New York City and delivered what was said to be his toughest private lecture to date on the Soviet role in Africa. During his three-day visit to Peking, Carter's National Security Adviser, Zbigniew Brzezinski, urged the Chinese to step up their economic assistance to Africa to provide a counterweight to that of the Russians. Vice President Walter Mondale sharply criticized the Soviet Union in a U.N. speech for its obdurate stand on disarmament. In the meantime, the President ordered the preparation of a Presidential Review Memorandum (or PRM, pronounced prim) to examine Soviet and Cuban motives in Africa and determine what the U.S. response should be.
Within the Administration, there is general agreement on what the Cubans are up to: Castro, always the ideologue, is exporting revolution to win friends and thumb his nose at the U.S. But there are two importantly different schools of thought as to what the Russians are up to. One view is that the Soviets are, as usual, merely reacting to targets of opportunity; helping the Katangese rebels, for instance, gives them a chance for some low-cost, low-risk adventurism, with possibly big rewards. This is basically Vance's view, although he admits to some uncertainty about Moscow's ultimate intentions. Brzezinski leans to the second view, which is that the Soviets have a grand design for Africa and the Middle East. In addition to seizing a commanding position on the rim of the crucial oil routes, their goal would be to gain direct access to the warm waters of the Indian Ocean, a dream that goes back to czarist times.
U.S. Ambassador to the U.N. Andrew Young is worried about the Soviet role in Africa from a somewhat different viewpoint. He regards the Communist threat to the continent as less serious than does either Vance or Brzezinski, partly because he believes African nations are more interested in economic development than in ideology and thus more inclined to look to the West for help. But he is fearful that Russian adventurism could produce an emotional reaction in the U.S., which could wreck the Administration's carefully nurtured policy of seeking closer ties with black Africa.
The President evidently feels the moment has arrived for blunt talk.
At a town meeting in Spokane, Wash., he recently denounced the Soviets as "innate racists" who are doomed to fail in the Third World. He is dismayed that the Soviets seem to be widening their influence in Africa, and surprised that he has had so little luck in persuading even moderate African leaders to take a strong stand against the Soviets and Cubans in their midst.