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Indeed, in Jerusalem's rhetoric, the peril represented by the Palestinians in southern Lebanon seemed almost deliberately overblown, as if the Begin regime had figured that the very size of Operation Stone of Wisdom might raise doubts in Washington and other capitals about whether this trip was really necessary. Inevitably, there would be suspicion that at least one aim of the excursion was to dramatize Israel's concern about security at a time when the Begin regime is under U.S. pressure to pull out of the occupied territories elsewhere, especially in the West Bank. Israeli military men say that they had to commit such a large force—elements of two divisions, plus considerable airpower—so as to be ready to take on the Syrians if they chose to send some of the 30,000 troops they have in Lebanon into the fray on the Palestinians' side. Nonetheless, the whole operation was open to question on several grounds.
For one thing, until the latest raid, Palestinian terrorist activity inside Israel had not been particularly heavy in recent months. Moreover, since southern Lebanon became a base of Palestinian operations in the early 1970s, the Israelis have clearly had the better of the sporadic cross-border conflict in the area. Also, U.S. officials point out, no "security zone," however it is policed, can offer Israel much additional protection from determined attack by fanatic Palestinian guerrillas. In fact, the attackers who seized the bus on the highway to Tel Aviv struck not across the Lebanese border but from the sea.
By Thursday, the Administration was strongly urging the Israelis to move out of south Lebanon. "We expect Israel to withdraw," the State Department declared flatly. "The Americans are now saying 'Get out, get out,' " complained an Israeli official, "but if we do that without some arrangement, the south will soon be back to where it was before this week." To meet these objections, the U.N., supporting the U.S. plan, appeared ready to vote to send a force to police southern Lebanon so that the Israelis would have no excuse for remaining. It was reported that this force would number 3,000 or 4,000 troops from Norway, Australia and other nations.
The latest hostilities have certainly not improved the prospects for the forthcoming Carter-Begin meeting. Nobody had been particularly hopeful anyway, especially after Begin let it be known three weeks ago that Israel no longer believes that U.N. Resolution 242, which among other things calls for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territories, applies to the West Bank. Now, as one Administration official puts it, "the main topic may be 'Get out of Lebanon.' " Carter will once more urge Begin to show more flexibility (over 242, for instance, and the question of Jewish settlements) and will undoubtedly express some serious reservations about the size and nature of the Israeli response to the terrorist attack. For his part, Begin will defend the venture in Lebanon as a vital security measure, and he will make a strong pitch to Carter to change his mind and refrain from selling F-15s to Saudi Arabia and F-5Es to Egypt. On that sensitive issue, Begin has been getting powerful (and perhaps decisive) support from Israel's vocal backers in the U.S.