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The subcompacts' troubles have stirred some talk of a big-car revival. It is wildly mistaken: the cars that are moving now are still shorter and lighter than the standards of the early 1970s. Big, standard-size cars (Chevrolet, Ford, Buick, Plymouth, Oldsmobile and Pontiac), which cost from $4,200 to more than $5,000, held almost 35% of the market in 1973. Their share shrank to 26% in 1974, 20% in 1975 and is currently 19%. Luxury cars (Cadillacs, Lincolns, Chrysler New Yorkers) are very slowly increasing their share of the market, now around 6%.
The biggest sales gains are being made by compacts priced from $3,200 to $4,500: Chevy Novas, Ford Granadas, Dodge Aspens and Plymouth Volares, which are only slightly larger than the most diminutive models. The compacts' market share has gone from little more than 14% two years ago to almost 19% today. Intermediate models, such as the Oldsmobile Cutlass and Chevrolet Monte Carlo, the Chrysler Cordoba and the Ford Elite, are also advancing, from 22% of the market last year to almost 26% this year. Their price range: $3,700 to $4,500.
Anyway, automakers are going to continue shrinking their cars and will even bring out more subcompacts in the belief that small cars will be the big wheels of the future. Besides, they really do not have much choice. The energy act passed by Congress last year requires the average new car to get 27.5 miles per gal. by 1985—about double the average performance of the 1974s and far greater even than the 17.6 miles per gal. average of current models. The only way to achieve that is to make cars shorter and lighter each year.
Slimming Down. GM, which now offers seven different subcompacts, is aggressively pressing multibillion-dollar plans to slim down most of its larger cars. The 1977 model of the standard Chevrolet Impala that will roll out next September will be only a few inches longer than intermediates like the Chevelle. Says Chairman Thomas Murphy: "By 1980 cars under 3,500 pounds may account for more than 70% of all GM sales compared with about 20% now."
Ford President Lee Iacocca believes that for the next few years there will still be a substantial market for standard cars—"especially four-door sedan styles"—but eventually most standards will shrink to about intermediate size —or smaller. To compete temporarily against GM's slow-moving Chevette (which carries a back seat as optional equipment), Ford has introduced an extra-economic version of the Pinto (38 miles per gal.). Next year, Ford will import a minicar assembled by its subsidiary in Germany and offer a trimmed-down version of its once popular Thunderbird.
Cash-strapped Chrysler is stepping up preparations to bring out its first domestic subcompact late next year. It has also begun importing a Japanese-made subcompact, the Plymouth Arrow. Pleased by brisk sales of his company's compact Volare and Aspen, Chrysler President Eugene Cafiero says: "The core of the market next year is going to be compact vehicles."