AUTOS: Too Small, Too Soon

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A gloomy stillness enveloped Ford Motor Co.'s normally bustling assembly plant in Metuchen, NJ. The plant was closed all last week to reduce a mounting backlog of unsold Pintos and Mercury Bobcats, two of the smallest models Ford produces. At the same time, a bulging inventory of Chevrolet's sub-compact Vegas prompted General Motors Corp. to eliminate a second shift at its huge superautomated plant in Lordstown, Ohio.

The cutbacks underscore a paradoxical development in a confusing model year. Sales of the 1976 cars that went on display in September have raced 37% ahead of a year earlier and are building close to a boom. Volume for calendar 1976 could easily hit 10.25 million cars, making it the third biggest year ever, after 1973 (11.35 million cars) and 1972 (10.48 million). Production is climbing; this March it reached 2.5 million cars, nearly a million more than in March 1975.

But the sales are not coming where Detroit's automakers had expected. For all the stress on fuel economy and thinking small that followed the 1973 Middle East oil embargo, the public is now largely spurning the industry's tiniest models. Instead, motorists are buying larger, somewhat gas-thirstier compacts and intermediates that offer a bit more leg room, somewhat more trunk space and in some cases even a touch of high style.

"It's a mixed-up market," says American Motors Corp. President William Luneburg, "and anybody who says he fully understands it is crazy." A vice president of another auto company reports on a meeting with officials of two major ad agencies: "Six months ago, they told us what to do: advertise gas economy, small size; advertise American, no-nonsense thrift. And who gets the action? Chrysler Cordoba and Volare—foreign names, foreign actors on the TV screen, 'Corinthian leather,' the look of 'elegance.' I asked the admen 'What the hell is this all about?' They could not explain it."

Part of the reason for the shift in taste is that the public has got over its fear of gas shortages, become inured to pump prices of more than 50¢ per gal., and is willing to spend a bit more for a larger car. In any case, the decline of the subcompacts, which usually carry sticker prices of $2,900 to $3,400, is striking: from 10% of the market just after the embargo to 7.7% now. While inventories of most other cars are sufficient to supply only 60 days of sales, dealers have a 100-day supply of Ford Pintos and even bigger pile-ups of Chevy Vegas.

Far Off the Pacer. Chevrolet's economical Chevette, introduced with great fanfare last October, is expected to fall well below its sales target of 275,000 to 300,000 units this year. Another disappointment: AMC's Pacer, which took off briskly when introduced a year ago, posted sales of more than 100,000 in the first ten months or so, then abruptly fell out of favor. To get sales moving again AMC is now throwing in free $425 air conditioners with all Pacer purchases.

Small imports, which range in price from $2,700 to $3,400, are also feeling the chill of buyer indifference. They now account for no more than 14% of U.S. sales v. almost 18% last year. Among foreign makes, Volkswagen, long the leader in import sales to the American market, has fallen to third, behind Toyota and Datsun.

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