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Carter's powers of incumbency —his control of the party machinery in many states, of federal patronage and funds—are offset at least in part by strengths that Kennedy inherited from his brothers. Says Theodore White: "The shadow legions of the Kennedys stretch from Maine to San Francisco. Just as Ezekiel's prophecy had the power to wake the dead, the Kennedy name will bring out the people who remember the old days with the sentiment of youth."
Kennedy supporters started mobilizing those forces only hours after helping to dedicate the John F. Kennedy Memorial Library in Boston on Oct. 20. They had held off until then because the Senator did not want the ceremony to be turned into a political event—a grace note that somehow was not communicated to his nephew Joe, who made a fiery attack on the Carter Administration's energy and economic policies. That day, at a strategy session, Kennedy's top advisers made plans for a money-raising blitz that will qualify him for federal campaign matching funds within a week's time. This requires raising $5,000 in gifts of $250 or less in each of at least 20 states.
Kennedy intends to enter all 35 Democratic primaries, at which 80% of the National Convention delegates will be chosen. He is heavily favored to win the first three primaries, New Hampshire, Vermont and Massachusetts.
But campaign fortunes will almost surely seesaw. Both Carter and Kennedy may at times look unbeatable, then be beaten. After New England come primaries in which Carter now appears to be invincible: Florida, Alabama and Georgia. In these states, as in most of the old Confederacy, Kennedy is about as popular as cold grits. Says Richard Dick, a high Virginia Democrat: "Kennedy's coattails in this state would work like a noose, strangling our candidates." The first real showdown may come when both candidates face off outside their home regions, in Illinois on March 18. The challenger got a significant lift for that battle last week when Chicago Mayor Jane Byrne, previously a Carter supporter, gave word that she was switching and will back Kennedy.
At this point, it seems likely that the Carter-Kennedy battle will continue through the rest of the primaries, perhaps culminating in the free-for-all of eight primaries on June 3. Voters in California, Montana, New Jersey, New Mexico, Ohio, Rhode Island, South Dakota and West Virginia will elect 696 delegates, more than one-fifth of the total that will select the party's presidential nominee at the convention in New York City in August.
The outcome may be close, certainly closer than the polls now indicate. Already the Kennedy challenge has begun to redefine the presidential election. Already it has brought out new mettle in Jimmy Carter, given focus and direction to his campaigning. Determined not to allow Kennedy to dominate him or the news, Carter has geared nearly every recent move he has made to the primary battles (see following story). Some Democrats fear that the struggle between the two will irreparably damage the party's chances of holding on to the White House. To Democratic National Chairman White, the Carter-Kennedy fight is much like two railroad locomotives hurtling toward each other.
Says he: "It sure creates lots of excitement, but what you are left with in the end is a big train wreck." Other party pros argue that the primary fight will guarantee a bigger turnout of Democratic voters in November and a stronger commitment to the party's nominee among those who do turn out. Says Kentucky Senator Wendell Ford: "It's like cats in the night. You think they are fighting and killing each other, but all you get later on is more cats."
The Democratic struggle is forcing Republicans to reassess the free-for-all in their own party. Many G.O.P. leaders fear that a Carter victory would make him much harder to beat in November. Says G.O.P. National Chairman William Brock: "He would have successfully met the question of his leadership and taken some of the wind out of issues that we would like to have first crack at." But the prospect of a Kennedy victory poses even more imponderables for Republicans. If the Democratic tide runs toward Kennedy, would the G.O.P. want to field its aging front runner, 68-year-old Ronald Reagan, against a much younger, dynamic Senator? At the moment, many party pros say no. That answer would seem to give an advantage to John Connally, 62, who is Kennedy's equal as a tub thumper. If Connally turns out to be unacceptable to rank-and-file Republicans, they might turn either to Howard Baker or George Bush. Both lack flair as campaigners, but they have long experience in Washington, they have no scandal in their backgrounds and their views are only moderately conservative.
However the G.O.P. contest comes out, it promises to be as action filled as the fight between Carter and Kennedy. After that will come what House Speaker Tip O'Neill grimly calls "an s.o.b. of an election."
*Kennedy prefers to be called Ted, though a few longtime friends use Teddy. His sisters still call him by his childhood nickname, Eddie.