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But in the second portion of the contest, voters elect the delegates to Miami from each of the state's 24 congressional districts. These are the votes that will count at the convention in July, and the most important thing about them is that reform has largely pried them loose from the iron grip of Chicago Mayor Richard Daley. The uncommitted slates that the mayor has assembled in Chicago will probably win handily, but most of the slates elsewhere in the state are up for grabs, and McGovern is very much in this battle.
Muskie is the favorite. Along with McGovern, he has fielded complete slates of delegates in most of the state's districts, though he has stayed out of Chicago in deference to Daley. But Muskie's popularity has got him in trouble in some districts, where there are more people running pledged to him—many on their own initiative —than there are delegate slots to be filled. If Muskie's vote is diluted enough through overkill, McGovern delegates might win even though they receive less than the total Muskie vote.
WISCONSIN, APRIL 4. This primary is the traditional graveyard of presidential hopefuls. The voters are unpredictable, partly because they are so varied, ranging from farmers and blue-collar workers to blacks and university liberals. Like Illinois, Wisconsin has both a statewide beauty-contest ballot and district selection of delegates. With the backing of most of the state's top political pros, Muskie is expected to capture at least a third of Wisconsin's 67 delegates.
Humphrey has little organization, but if he starts campaigning in his customary flavorful style, he may well change some minds. McGovern will get a hard-core liberal vote. Lindsay has made an impression by strenuous campaigning, such as sloshing through a barnyard in subzero weather to admire dairy cows. A few pundits give him an outside chance to sweep the presidential-preference vote, but most think Muskie will take the popularity contest.
PENNSYLVANIA, APRIL 25. The race is between Muskie and Humphrey, with Muskie out in front. He has cut into Humphrey's labor constituency, not because he is especially admired but because he looks like a winner. The leadership of both the United Auto Workers and the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees have endorsed Muskie. I.W. Abel, president of the United Steelworkers, is backing Humphrey, but has stopped short of endorsing him.
If COPE, the political arm of the AFL-CIO, also abstains, it will be a blow to Humphrey. Pennsylvania Governor Milton Shapp is in Muskie's corner. Except for Muskie, McGovern is the only candidate to have entered delegate slates in all the districts; but the polls still give him a mere 2% of the vote. The remaining candidates get less.