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George McGovern's campaign is built on grass-roots organization; he started early and still has one of the best apparatuses across the country. But he is not expected to win a single major primary unless some of the other left-of-center candidates drop out. One of these is John Lindsay. As Johnny-come-lately to the party, Lindsay must score a number of primary upsets to have a chance at the nomination. He is zeroing in on three: Florida, Wisconsin and Massachusetts. Another rival is Shirley Chisholm. She is putting her limited funds where they will do the most good: among black voters in Florida and North Carolina. Her best bet is the last primary, in New York. Eugene McCarthy does not look strong anywhere. He will pose much more of a threat after Miami when, if he is not satisfied by the platform, he might lead a third party.
For reasons of size, sequence or diversity of electorate, seven primaries out of the 24 loom as most important to a Democratic aspirant. Only Front Runner Muskie and McGovern can afford to mount extensive campaigns in all seven, an enterprise that TIME correspondents calculate could cost more than $8,000,000. A situation report on the key seven:
NEW HAMPSHIRE, MARCH 7. Important psychologically because it is first, this primary presents dangers to Muskie. A slight shift of sentiment in the small state could undermine his standing in the polls, which currently give him 58% of the vote. The shift could go in any of a number of directions. McGovern is the most serious threat, though he is still far behind. Campaigning for the conservative vote, Los Angeles Mayor Sam Yorty is given some 3% in the polls, mainly because he is supported by the state's biggest paper, the Manchester Union Leader. Other candidates include Indiana Senator Vance Hartke, who is given .5% by the polls but may win more as he travels about the state in his friendly fashion; a virtual unknown from Connecticut named Ned Coll (TIME, July 19), who also is pegged at .5%; and the powerful chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, Wilbur Mills, who has recently entered the race as a write-in candidate and apparently has ample funds. The question is not whether Muskie will win, but whether he will win by enough. Anything less than 50% would be dangerous.
FLORIDA, MARCH 14. All the chief Democratic contenders meet head-on in this primary, but the voters could not seem to care less. The candidates do not excite them. What does excite them is the statewide referendum on busing. As the most outspoken antibusing candidate, Wallace is considered to be in the lead. Tied for second place are Muskie and Humphrey.
Without much of a state organization, Humphrey is campaigning hard and reminding the party how much he has done for it in the past. Jackson is confining his campaign to areas where he is likely to do best; the trouble is, those are the areas where Wallace is strong. As for Wallace, he has no fixed plan. He simply invites the folks who love him best to come out and vote for him. No doubt they will, but Muskie or Humphrey may sneak by George.
ILLINOIS, MARCH 21. This is really a two-part primary. One part is a mere "beauty contest," in which voters express a preference for one candidate over another for the nomination. Here Muskie confronts only McCarthy. The Maine man should take a handsome 70% of the vote in this part.