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Moreover, higher fuel prices would hasten the search for gas and oil substitutes that at present are not economically feasible.
The effect of higher prices on demand was demonstrated by a recent Harvard University computer study on household consumption of electricity.
The study predicted that if the "real" cost of plugging in appliances is unchanged over the next two decades, electrical use may nearly triple. But, if the cost goes up by 50%—which seems more than likely—demand will increase by only 80% from its present level.
How to Cut Consumption
Environmentalists are convinced that high costs alone will not be enough to discourage excessive use of energy. Thus they were dismayed when President Nixon's energy message failed to stress conservation as an important tool in blunting the crisis. Nonetheless, an unlikely coalition of industrial, political and environmental leaders are all calling for measures to decrease the American appetite for energy. Senator Henry M. Jackson, who this week will introduce an energy-conservation bill in the Senate, puts it this way: "We need to ask whether we must despoil the hills in Appalachia to air-condition sealed-glass towers in New York. We need to ask whether we must put ourselves in hock to Middle Eastern sheikdoms to keep roads clogged with gas-hungry cars."
The fact is that conservation of energy not only saves the environment but also pays off financially. Last year the President's Office of Emergency Preparedness concluded that the U.S. could reduce energy consumption by the equivalent of 7.3 million bbl. of oil a day; that would save about $11 billion in foreign exchange by 1980.
With a reduction from the present annual growth rate of 4.2% to about 2.2% by 1985, says the Ford Foundation's Freeman, "the savings would be small at first, but would grow steadily. And they would make the difference between a crisis and managing the problem."
Conservationists point to the following major areas in which large amounts of energy could be conserved:
TRANSPORTATION. In this sector, which now accounts for 25% of total U.S. energy use, the prime offender is the automobile. It not only operates inefficiently (using only about 20% of the energy potential in gasoline; the rest is thrown off in heat and exhaust), but also is used wastefully. The Office of Emergency Preparedness says that 54% of all trips are less than five miles—e.g., simply driving to the corner drugstore to buy a pack of cigarettes. Even on longer commutes to work, the average six-seat car contains only 1.4 people. To the dismay of Detroit, some conservationists propose a tax either on bigger engines (which burn more gasoline than smaller ones) or on poor gas-mileage performance: cars getting more than 20 miles per gallon would escape the tax altogether. Beyond that, all energy savers favor mass transit where possible —plus higher commutation charges at tollgates and parking lots to encourage car pools.