The first signs of the impending disaster came slowly: increases in the cost of oil and gasoline, reductions in voltage delivered by power companies during peak hours, and occasional dim-outs. But then the pace accelerated as the Government began rationing essential fuels and exhorted the public to forsake private cars. The reduced use of automobiles had immediate repercussions in Detroit, where the auto industry began laying off workers by the thousands. Other industries, notably the steel manufacturers, also were severely hit. A "domino effect" of factory shutdowns swept through the U.S. economy.
Eventually shortages of fuel and breakdowns of the transportation system produced growing food shortages as farmers were unable to ship their products to the country's great urban centers. The stock market plummeted. Industrial growth came to a standstill. The Government, attempting to stave off a collapse of the national economy, imposed rigid guidelines for prices, wages and profits. Critics of these policies were severely penalized under new antisedition laws that virtually nullified the First Amendment. The U.S., in effect, became a totalitarian state.
THIS chilling scenario is not from a leftist science-fiction film but out of the pages of a serious recent book, The Energy Crisis (Crown; $5.95), by Lawrence Rocks and Richard P. Runyon, both professors at Long Island's C.W. Post College. Unless the U.S. takes serious measures to find new sources of energy, the authors warn, such massive turmoil could occur in the U.S. by the 1980s. While the apocalyptic view of Rocks and Runyon is exaggerated, talk about an energy crisis is more than hyperbole.
Most Americans cannot yet get excited about that problem, but many of them have already seen the effects of the growing energy shortage. During the past three summers, there have been scattered brownouts across the nation. These cutbacks on voltage, designed to preserve overloaded generators, caused TV pictures to shrink, lights to dim and air conditioners to slow down. Electric utilities in major cities, which until a few years ago urged their customers to use more electricity, now have changed their line. The new theme, typified by New York City's Consolidated Edison Co., is "Save a watt" by turning off lights and appliances when they are not absolutely necessary.
Last winter, for the first time in memory, fuel-oil supplies ran ominously low. From Denver to Des Moines, schools were closed for lack of heat, and production in fuel-short factories came to a halt. This spring has already seen scattered instances of gasoline shortages and service-station shutdowns, and there is growing concern that further shortages may lead to gas rationing before the summer is out.
Paradoxically, the U.S. still has ample domestic sources of energy. Experts estimate that reserves include enough recoverable deposits of oil (which accounts for 45% of today's energy consumption) and of natural gas (32%) to last about another two decades. Beyond that time, foreign supplies of those fuels should be sufficient to meet all the world's needs until at least 2030. In addition, the U.S. has immense reserves of coal (which now accounts for only 18% of U.S. energy consumption) —enough, theoretically, to fill domestic needs for centuries.