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Accent on Newlyweds. Above all else, business opportunities in the 1970s will be affected by startling changes in the age mix of the U.S. population. Because of the low birth rate, population rose only 1.1% last year, to 206 million. Census experts envisage an increase of only 1.3% a year until 1975 and 1.4%-a-year growth until 1980 (to about 230 million). Fully one-third of that increase will come among 25-to 34-year-olds; they were born during the postwar "baby boom," and are now becoming newlyweds themselves.
The 1970s will become the era of the young marrieds. They will provide a huge market for minimal-cost housing: mobile homes, or tiny town houses and apartments in the far-out suburbs. Builders estimate that construction of such units may have to double from present levels. "Young marrieds are avid consumers," notes Adman Victor Bloede, president of Manhattan's Benton & Bowles. "They buy everything." They also borrow heavily. In, particular, they will want appliances and furniture, pots and dishes, infants' wear and home entertainment items as diverse as Tia Maria and tape recorders.
By contrast, there will be little increase in the 45-to-64 age group. Seasoned executives may be in such short supply that many will postpone retirement. The number of U.S. teen-agers will hardly rise at all by 1980, a fact that may reshape the market for companies that cashed in on rock records and teen clothing during the 1960s. The sub-teen population (ages five through twelve) will actually shrink, cutting into the demand for breakfast cereals, some soft drinks, toys and bicycles. Says Argus Research Corp. Economist Sam Nakagama: "American families can now spend money on themselves instead of their kids, getting rid of a great burden on family budgets." A burden will be lifted from state and local taxpayers too. Elementary school population is expected to decline until 1975 and remain below its present level even in 1980. Except in fast-growth areas, there will be little need to build more schools in the next ten years.
Business will be profoundly affected by geographic shifts in population. Two out of three Americans live in metropolitan areas (v. 42% in 1900), but the growth rate of the biggest urban areas is dwindling. Because suburbs have become more populous than central cities, there will be more construction of shopping centers—and more trouble for downtown department stores. The move away from big-city centers will also lead to less crowding of urban land. By the year 2000, census officials expect the population density of sprawling metropolitan areas to drop to about half of what it was in 1920.
Americans are increasingly choosing to dwell where the sun often shines, or near water. Half the U.S. now lives within 50 miles of a seacoast or the Great Lakes. The fast gainers in the 1960s were middle-sized metropolitan areas (pop. 700,000 to 2,000,000) in California, Arizona and Texas. Among them: Anaheim-Santa Ana, up 100.2%; San Jose, up 65%; Phoenix, up 45%; San Bernardino-Riverside, up 39%; and Houston, up 38%.