A5 the results of the 1970 census pour from the Government's computers, population analysts are finding an astonishing number of encouraging trends for the nation's economy. Almost everybody stands to become more prosperous in the next few years and beyond. Census Bureau officials calculate that the median income of the U.S. family, measured in dollars of constant buying power, will rise from $8,600 in 1969 to $10,900 by the beginning of 1975. Then the figure will continue upward, to $14,700 by 1985. Says the bureau's director, George Hay Brown: "We are heading into a society with an affluent majority."
Brown's forecast assumes, as most economists do, that incomes and productivity will increase in the 1970s at the same rate that they did in the past decade. By 1985, some 16% of U.S. families are expected to be earning $25,000 or more a year, five times the current percentage. Since 1959, the number of persons below the official poverty level has fallen from 39.5 million to 25.4 million, a drop from 22% to only 12% of the population; the rate of decline has been accelerating in re cent years. Popular myth to the contrary, says Herman Miller, chief of the Census Bureau's population division, "the rich are not getting richer and the poor poorer. The money is being spread around more and more."
Leisure and Luxuries. Though the markets of the future are highly unpredictable because of social and political uncertainties, several trends seem likely to occur. Consumers—and voters —will have an unprecedented amount of choice about how to spend their new wealth. A substantial part will probably be siphoned away by higher taxes, but those taxes could help to pay for cleaner air and water, improved medical care, better teachers, more reliable public transportation and new day-care centers for working mothers. Even so, the demand for luxury goods and services will probably soar. Millions of families will buy or rent more lavish homes and apartments, and load them with the latest gadgets. Marketing analysts anticipate a big increase in sales of swimming pools and second homes. Spending for leisure and travel will rise anew, in part because of the increase in three-day weekends that begins this year with the switch of four federal holidays to Mondays. Outdoor recreation will be increasingly popular, lifting sales of boats, ski equipment, picnic and camping gear. If the four-day work week wins a foothold, it can only reinforce all these prospects.
There was a substantial increase in the number of working wives during the 1960s. Census Bureau experts expect the trend to continue and boost family income. A surprising number of women from affluent families go to work, more out of desire than need. Among wives whose husbands earn less than $5,000 a year, 45% have jobs; but so do 35% of the wives whose husbands are paid $15,000 or more, and 26% of wives whose husbands get $25,000 or more.