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Manpower is also a problem. Iran is already short of technocrats and skilled workers. Yet the Shah must somehow find—and train—the personnel to man his expanding, ultramodern armed forces. At the same time, he must be careful not to create a military elite that could dominate his country. At present, Iran is stable, and the Shah seems to have the overwhelming support of his people. He has carried out something like a social revolution from the top. He boosted the Iranian economy to an annual growth rate of 11%, among the world's highest. Rising wages, a government-mandated profit-sharing system and land reform have helped him gain the backing of the peasants, who make up 60% of the total population. (It did not do the Shah any harm, either, when he recently refused a price increase for Pepsi-Cola on the ground that it was a poor man's drink.)
But Iran has a long way to go yet to achieve the good life, let alone the "great civilization" envisaged by the Shah. Medical care and educational facilities remain inadequate; life expectancy is 45, and 50% of the population is illiterate. Says a government statement: "Iran, being one of the first of the world's ancient nations to reach the frontiers of modern industrialization, believes it can avoid the pitfalls of the Western industrial societies while escaping the hardships [imposed by] Communist regimes." The question is whether Iran can avoid those pitfalls and hardships and still afford the cost of being the top cop of the gulf?
*The Shah was not averse, however, to doing a little oil business on the side. While in Washington, he announced that Iran had obtained a 50% stake in the New York State-based refining and marketing activities of Ashland Oil Inc. In return, the U.S. company will receive a guaranteed supply of crude oil.