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The prospect obviously pleases the Nixon Administration. Since Britain, the region's longtime constable, withdrew from the Persian Gulf in 1971, the U.S. has made no attempt to fill the power vacuum; its Middle East naval force based in Bahrain remains at two destroyers. But, faced with a growing shortage of energy and increased Soviet influence in the gulf area, the U.S. is eager to ensure its Middle East sources of oil. This can be achieved, Washington feels, by arming friendly Iran, as well as Saudi Arabia and Kuwait.
The Soviet Union has chosen another surrogate in the gulf. After its military advisers were ordered out of Egypt last summer, Russia revised its Middle East strategy around Iraq, which has only 35 miles of shoreline on the gulf but wants more. In return for oil, the Soviet Union agreed to provide Iraq with MIG fighter planes, other arms and technical assistance. At the same time, the Russians set about conducting covert political-military activities in the gulf area.
With Soviet acquiescence, if not encouragement, Iraq's left-wing Baathist regime has been generating border trouble with both Iran to the east and Kuwait to the south. Skirmishes between Iraqi and Iranian border guards are common. Russia (along with China) has supplied weapons to guerrillas trying to overthrow Sultan Qabus of Oman. If these rebels were successful, they could bottleneck the gulf by sinking a supertanker in the narrow channel that is now negotiated by 100 ships in the Strait of Hormuz each day. The short-range Soviet aim seems to be to keep the U.S. on edge by disrupting the calm of the gulf. But there is a long-range possibility that, by adroit maneuvering through middlemen, Russia could cut off oil supplies to the West.
Despite such tensions. Iran maintains overtly cordial relations with the Soviet Union, with whom it shares nearly 2,000 miles of common border. Indeed, Iran has even received antiaircraft guns and military vehicles, as well as economic aid. from the Soviets. But there is an edge to Prime Minister Amir Abbas Hoveida's voice when he says: "Subversion under whatever name and from whatever source will not be tolerated in the Persian Gulf."
No Croesus. Moscow has not objected publicly to Iran's military buildup, but Iraq, which broke off diplomatic relations with Teheran in 1970, has, calling it "chauvinistic, aggressive and adventuristic." Another nation disturbed by the pace of Iran's armament is India. New Delhi is worried about Iranian influence in the Indian Ocean and also fears that some of Iran's weapons will eventually end up in Pakistan.
Not that Iran can go on buying more and better arms at the current rate indefinitely. Though it is the second-largest producer of oil in the Middle East after Saudi Arabia, Iran is no Croesus looking for ways to spend excess money. The Shah is committed to shifting his country of 31 million people into a more balanced economy less dependent on oil. He boasts that within ten years Iran will be the equal of France or West Germany today. But that takes money too. Says a U.S. observer in Teheran: "At the moment, between arms and development, they're spending more than they're taking in."