World: The Secession that Failed

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Beyond that, Gowon's most urgent task is to correct the constitutional inadequacies that led to the rebellion. To accommodate regional interests and give more power to Nigeria's many minority tribes, Gowon is thinking of increasing the number of states from twelve to 16 or more. The move could reshape Nigeria's politics by shifting emphasis from tribes to political parties. If the parties became strong enough, they might finally suppress the Northern-dominated military cliques that have been running the country for most of the decade since independence. Such a move would be timely. More and more Nigerians complain openly about corruption among army officers and their inordinate love of "dash" or bribes. "What happened in Biafra could have happened in maybe seven of the twelve states," a disgruntled Yoruba said last week.

Gowon's biggest asset in his attempts to transform Nigeria is the country's wealth. Despite the civil war, its economic prospects are probably the best of any Black African nation. Nigeria is already Black Africa's biggest oil producer. Output, now that the war is ending, should reach a record million barrels daily this year and revenues of $1 billion a year by 1975. Oil has also given Gowon a remarkable degree of independence in foreign affairs, despite the fact that he had to turn to Russia and other politically minded suppliers for weapons. Gowon made cash-on-the-barrelhead payments for all his war purchases; now he is in debt to no foreign nation.

For all that, the fact that Biafra has failed does not necessarily mean that Nigeria will succeed. Yakubu Gowon understands; not long after he came to power in 1966 he despaired of ever overcoming the divisive forces that were rending Nigeria. "There is no basis for unity," he said then. But he has since come to believe otherwise. His efforts to transform that conviction into reality could become an example—or an epitaph—for all of Black Africa's struggling states.

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