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The President has always equated Kim's nuclear saber rattling with blackmail, and a face-to-face engagement would seem tantamount to caving in. But when Bush entered the Oval Office, North Korea had two nuclear warheads; now the CIA estimates that Pyongyang has enough plutonium to make as many as eight and is hard at work on the technology that would deliver them to American shores. North Korea is slowly but surely building its nuclear capability, making the world steadily less safe, and it's not clear what anyone can do about it without trying something entirely different. If Kim Jong Il intended to put the pressure back on Washington with his Fourth of July fireworks display, he surely succeeded. [The following descriptive text appears within A diagram] A Growing Threat The bulk of North Korea s arsenal consists of hundreds of short-range missiles that threaten South Korea and Japan. Kim Jong Il is believed to have enough plutonium for six to eight nuclear weapons, but the recent failures show he still lacks a rocket capable of reaching the U.S. for now Worst case Experts fear that North Korea is trying to modify a Taepo Dong-2 missile to carry a lighter warhead as far as the mainland U.S., but that capability is thought to be years away The missile that crashed in two minutes is believed to be a three-stage rocket, though its exact configuration remains unclear. North Korea has several variations with longer potential ranges [This article contains a table. Please see hardcopy of magazine.]
Scud B Scud C Nodong Taepo Dong-1 Taepo Dong-2 STATUS Developed Developed Developed Tested In development RANGE 200 miles 350 miles 800 miles 900 to 1,200 miles 3,000 to 3,700 miles PAYLOAD 2,200 lbs. 2,200 lbs. 1,650 lbs. 1,700 lbs. 2,200 lbs. POSSIBLE TARGETS Parts of South Korea South Korea, parts of Japan South Korea, most of Japan Japan Alaska, parts of HawaiiSources: John Pike, C.P. Vick, GlobalSecurity.org Arms Control Association; Federation of American Scientists