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Botha's concessions, which the Reagan Administration supports and considers to be a partial vindication of its policy of constructive engagement, were too much for Afrikaner hard-liners but not nearly enough for black political leaders of any persuasion. Unhappily for the government, the reforms coincided with a deepening economic crisis, the worst, in some Johannesburg analysts' view, since 1929. The price of gold, which provides more than 50% of South African export earnings, has held stagnant since 1983, and inflation (now 16%) and unemployment (estimated at 8.4% among the work force) were on the rise. The recession hit blacks hardest, and under the twin pressures of economic squeeze and political dissatisfaction, violence flared in the black townships. Much of it was directed at blacks who work in the 47,000-man police force (they constitute more than 50%) or in other government agencies and are often thought to be "collaborators."
Bishop Tutu may speak out against violence and call for a Christian resolution of the nation's problems. Chief Gatsha Buthelezi, the powerful Zulu leader who has fought apartheid by refusing independence for Kwa-Zulu, his tribal homeland, may talk about some kind of power sharing with whites. But the unemployed young blacks of the townships are more inclined to listen to the voice of the long-banned African National Congress, whose leader, Nelson Mandela, has been imprisoned by the government since 1962. From exile, the acting heads of the 73-year-old nationalist movement have vowed to win independence by intensifying military action and by extending a sporadic sabotage campaign, so far directed more at property than people, to include "soft civilian targets." Even as Bishop Tutu delivered his cry of the heart at KwaThema last week, some youths, waving the black, green and gold colors of the A.N.C., chanted, "Give us weapons. We want to strike back at the state."
As always in South Africa, the contrasts are so great that generalizations are difficult. Over the past generation, the thinking of many whites has changed, and along with it their society. Today there is a small but noticeable measure of racial integration in sports, churches, shops and offices, as well as bars, restaurants, hotels and theaters. Rapid industrialization during the past two decades has brought blacks four or five times the pay they received a few years ago, though they still average only about 19% of what whites earn. That is not true, however, of black employees of dozens of major companies like IBM, who receive the same pay as their white counterparts.
Today blacks constitute perhaps 60% of the country's total work force. There are black doctors, lawyers, bankers, supermarket managers, advertising executives, personnel managers. There are even a few black tycoons who have made fortunes in retailing and trading.
In Cape Town, seat of the legislature, colored and Indian M.P.s shout their disapproval of apartheid within the new tricameral Parliament. In Johannesburg, black and white traffic cops wear the same black serge, receive the same salary and hand out the same tickets. Until ten years ago, television was not permitted by a government that regarded it as immoral and dangerously subversive. Today whites watch The A Team and The Bill Cosby Show and buy Mr. T dolls for their children.