Ever since he became a serious contender, with his Golden Globe win, Rourke has been a good boy, wooing the media and, by extension, the Academy, with his real-life comeback story of an actor who spent the worse part of two decades abusing his body, his reputation and his gift for crazy-sensitive emoting. It helps that the plot of The Wrestler mirrors his own story. By voting for him, Academy members can validate Hollywood's favorite myth: that behind the most crushing defeat, redemption awaits. Plus, they get to hear a back-from-the-dead acceptance speech. Not since Jesus. Odds of winning: 3 to 2