It's the strongest acting category this year, and three, maybe four of the nominated ladies are Oscar-worthy. The front-runner is Cruz, in Woody Allen's Spanish comedy. It's one of those performances that, halfway through an agreeable film, twists the cap off and lets the comic demons fly out. As Javier Bardem's ex-wife she's almost a cartoon of Iberian passion, but Cruz lends a thoughtfulness that lifts it above stereotype. She gets extra points for her long kiss with Scarlett Johansson — and, indirectly, for her excellent lead role in Elegy. The Academy members don't make their choice in a vacuum. (Odds of winning: 3 to 2)