Quotes of the Day

Former French President Jacques Chirac used to warn his advisers that problems tend to arrive in squadrons, usually flying in formation. It's a point on which his successor, Nicolas Sarkozy, might be tempted to agree. In the space of several weeks, Sarkozy's previously commanding leadership has come under fire from all directions. The French public appears to have had more than enough of his flashy, over-exposed private life. His highly touted economic reforms have so far largely failed to bear fruit. His approval ratings have plunged at a dizzying speed. Now many conservative candidates are looking to distance themselves from Sarkozy as they campaign for next month's municipal elections.

Could this buzz attack of bad news send Sarkozy scrambling, as Chirac often did, for the safe bunker of the status quo? Not unless he gets spooked into making a serious strategic mistake. Because despite souring public opinion and the risk of gains for the left at the polls, one thing hasn't changed since Sarkozy's convincing election victory only nine months ago: the wide consensus among voters that France needs the root-and-branch reform Sarkozy was elected to enact. Candidate Sarkozy promised harder work, more pay, fewer civil servants and a pared-down welfare state. He said he'd help small businesses get out from under high taxes and stifling regulation. "I expect a lot in terms of both the scope and results of reform, and I want him to continue pushing it ahead," says Eric Platel, a Paris-area IT consultant who voted for Sarkozy. With more than four years remaining in his five-year mandate, Sarkozy's best chance is to renew his reformist push, wait for its benefits to blossom, and ride back up the polls.

Sarkozy has been in tough spots before. In 1995, he backed Edouard Balladur, not Chirac, for President, and had to work his way back into the good books — just about — of Chirac and his circle. In 1999, he led his party to a disastrous defeat in European parliamentary elections, and was again pitched into the political wilderness. Now, having reached the pinnacle of French politics, Sarkozy is perversely back at rock bottom. His approval rating has dropped from 64% in September to just 39% this month.

Support eroded first among older, traditional conservatives repelled by Sarkozy's private life: his unabashed relish for wealth and famous friends; his public anguish over and finally divorce from his wife Cécilia; and his courtship of and, less than four months later, marriage to former top model Carla Bruni. But the latest polls show the leading cause of voter complaint to be Sarkozy's failure to deliver on the reforms he hyped to the heavens during his first six months in office.

Jean-Marc Lech, co-president of the Ipsos polling agency, calls it "a sentimental disappointment." The French, he says, feel "chagrin that promises made aren't being respected," and that has made Sarkozy fair game on all fronts. "If he'd boosted economic growth, increased purchasing power and decreased unemployment, as promised, he could do whatever he wanted in his private life with absolute impunity," says Lech. "The problem is he's not delivering on anything. Now people wonder if he really knows how to turn things around."

Indeed, many of Sarkozy's vaunted policy initiatives have so far fizzled. A package of tax reductions and credits passed into law last July has had little discernible impact on investment and jobs. Legislation that took hold in October allowing companies and workers to step around the legal 35-hour work-week limit hasn't done much to stiffen French work habits. And though his showdown in November with militant unions and striking transport workers over generous special pensions was hailed as an unprecedented success, Sarkozy still hasn't produced a final agreement to end that conflict, which could flame anew when talks on tightening general retirement schemes open this spring.

To an extent, Sarkozy has been unlucky. Factors beyond his control — America's subprime crisis and possible recession, rising world oil and food prices — have slowed French economic growth to 1.9%, below the lowest end of the government's estimate for 2008. Salaries have been largely frozen since 2001, which means that flagging purchasing power has joined unemployment as the biggest worry for the French. Despite campaign pledges that he'd be "the purchasing-power President," who would "go out and find economic growth," Sarkozy has been unable to ease pressure on consumer pocketbooks.

But the parlous state of the global economy is not the whole story. Whether it was booming or bust, the plain fact is that Sarkozy has not so far dealt with the sclerosis in France's institutions. The nation's pay-as-you-go pension scheme faces bankruptcy as baby boomers retire and leave fewer people paying into the system. France's enviable health service leaks red ink, and its public-education system continues turning out well-schooled students largely unprepared for the job market. Payroll taxes extracted from companies and employees to finance state services are blamed for higher labor costs that undermine French competitiveness.

Tackling such challenges would demand more determination than Sarkozy has summoned until now. "The reforms undertaken so far have been pretty low-risk, because they've tended to target relatively small interest groups," says political analyst and Sciences-Po professor Dominique Reynié. "It'll be a different story if Sarkozy starts the tough reform of shrinking the state. That would mean asking people to work even longer and get a smaller pension; to get less reimbursement of health expenses; and to suddenly see fewer teachers in schools and fewer cops on the streets."

The current political context, an Elysée adviser admits, makes launching such "heavy" reforms difficult. But Sarkozy has some strengths. Whatever the left's potential gains in city halls, incessant warring among Socialist leaders leaves the right facing little effective national opposition. Sarkozy's conservative Union for a Popular Movement has a massive majority in France's legislature. And with French state finances stretched to the breaking point, there is a chance that Sarkozy will slash spending in the summer and aim at balanced books between 2010 and 2012.

Will that happen? "So far Sarkozy has rolled out policy on a case-per-case basis, and has tried to project pragmatism as a program," warns Reynié. That, of course, sounds just like Chirac — and Sarkozy was supposed to epitomize a rupture from his predecessor's practiced ability to avoid tough choices. Within the next few months, we'll know if he really does.

• BRUCE CRUMLEY/PARIS
• With his popularity at an all-time low and an electoral embarrassment looming, French President Nicolas Sarkozy's reforms look stalled. But bottoming out could be just what he needs to get serious about real change