Historians, like economists, are rightfully wary of the phrase "It's different this time." The higher the stakes, the more pressing the desire to avoid past errors. Considering the ravages that followed the introduction of Islamic law, or Shari'a, in places like Iran in 1979 and Afghanistan in the 1990s, Westerners can be forgiven for worrying about the election of a former Islamist, Abdullah Gul, to the presidency of Turkey, the one Muslim democracy that seemed to have avoided Islamic extremism so far.
But there are good reasons to think that this time it is, in fact, different. Gul, 56, is a moderate, and Turkey has always been a radically different place from its neighbors to the east. Today's ruling AK Party (AKP) is a democratic movement with roots in the Anatolian heartland, where economic success is valued as highly as piety. Its leaders, Gul among them, have renounced Islamism, or the belief that Islam has a role in guiding affairs of state. Gul himself holds a Ph.D. in economics and spearheaded Turkey's efforts to reform its economy and legal system to bring it in line with European Union norms.
Despite the allegations of some of its critics, there is nothing in the AKP's record to indicate it harbors a secret agenda to turn Turkey into a Shari'a state. Turkey's economy is too diversified to allow a theological clique to somehow seize power against the wishes of the people. Indeed, while the majority of Turks are Muslim, the number who think Shari'a is a good idea has fallen to below 10%. An overwhelming majority rank economic progress as their top priority.
Western commentators often hold up Turkey as a model of democracy and capitalism in the Muslim world. That role as an exemplar is not one that many Turks particularly want, arguing that Turkey's history, geography and secularist traditions the very things that have helped bind it tightly to the West are unique among Muslim nations. Regardless, Gul's election doesn't threaten those achievements; it confirms them. Turkey's economy is closely linked to the world. Now there are grounds for thinking that its political system, too, is becoming more deeply rooted in modern, democratic ideals.