The investigation into the Oct. 1 Bali bombings may lead to arrests and high-profile trials. But that will not stop the terrorism. In fact, Asia's vulnerability is likely to grow.
There are several reasons for this. The phenomenon of suicide bombers has become a grim new reality in the region, and it's here to stay. During the Suharto years, Indonesian authorities clamped down on any challenge to the state. Now the country is more open and democratic, but an unwelcome consequence is that militants have a freer run of the place. Al-Qaeda still provides money, trainers and technology to Jemaah Islamiah (J.I.) and to militant Philippine groups like Abu Sayyaf. And Iraq, where Muslims are dying and suffering, continues to inspire Islamic extremists. If the Americans lose in Iraq, terrorists worldwide will be further emboldened.
All this has a cumulative effect on Asia. So far, the threat of radical Islam in the region is confined to Indonesia and the Philippines. (In southern Thailand, the issue, for now, is Muslim disaffection with the central government in Bangkok.) Through decisive action—arrests and effective gathering and sharing of intelligence—the Malaysian and Singaporean governments have dismantled the terrorist infrastructures in their countries. But the extremists can use Indonesia and the Philippines as launchpads to strike at neighboring nations.
Indonesia is J.I.'s undisputed heartland. The vast majority of Indonesians do not support terrorism, but given the size of the population, even a tiny minority of violent believers can translate into thousands of potential terrorists. In Indonesia, it is not illegal to be a member or a supporter of J.I., which portrays itself as a religious organization. As long as J.I. propaganda, recruitment and fund-raising are tolerated, the group will be able to recruit and form fresh operational cells.
Asian governments need to fight terror on multiple fronts. Both Indonesia and the Philippines should enact stern counterterrorism laws. Indonesia should ban J.I., enabling the country's security agencies to move decisively against it. And it should clean up the radical madrasahs that breed extremists, subjecting them to tougher law enforcement and pressuring Muslim religious and educational organizations to police them. In the Philippines, the authorities should shut down training camps through intelligence-led military action and through talks with the main Muslim militant group, the Moro Islamic Liberation Front.
The war on terror also requires societies to build an ethic against politically and religiously instigated violence. Any counterterrorism strategy must include a capability and willingness to negotiate with those Islamic groups with legitimate grievances and that are willing to end the violence. Radical Islamic schools need to be re-educated so that they become proponents of peace, and the media must inform the public about what terrorism really is: unjustifiable murder of the innocent. Everyone has to play a role. Only then can the war be won.