The Meaning of Harper

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It was a shrewd way to send a message to Canadians, many of whom assumed a Harper government would move in lockstep with Washington. Nevertheless, the young Conservative leader's victory may indeed have "put a smile" on U.S. President George W. Bush's face--as Liberals jeered during the campaign--if only because Americans have been puzzled and piqued by the Chretien and Martin governments' anti-American rhetoric over the past four years. Even so, Bush was reportedly miffed at Harper for failing to throw his party's support behind the U.S.'s continental ballistic-missile-defense scheme (which the Liberals rejected last year). In the first and only meeting between the two, during the U.S. President's 2004 trip to Ottawa, Bush was said to have lectured Harper on the need for stronger continental defenses. But since then, Harper's pledge to reopen the missile-defense issue with a parliamentary debate, along with the Conservatives' defense-oriented, pro-U.S. platform, has encouraged Washington's belief that it may now have a more reliable ally in Ottawa.

Mark Souder, a Republican U.S. Congressman from Indiana and a member of the Canada-U.S. Inter-Parliamentary Group, predicts the principal consequence of the Conservatives' ascent to power will be a new "tone of mutual respect" between the two capitals. Harper's Arctic admonition could rekindle the old doubts, but improvements in the U.S.-Canada relationship will probably come through a mutual recognition of the new "geopolitical realities" in an energy-hungry and security-conscious North America, says Professor John Thompson, who teaches Canadian studies at North Carolina's Duke University. And no one is better positioned to exploit those new realities than Harper, thanks to networks in place among western Canadian conservatives, Calgary oil barons and U.S. Republicans. As a result, some long-simmering trade quarrels, such as the one over softwood lumber, may be moved from the back burner to the front--especially as the Alberta oil sands and proposed Mackenzie Valley gas pipeline strengthen Canada's position as a prime energy supplier to the U.S. The irony is that Harper will be able to build on foundations laid by departing Canadian ambassador to the U.S. (and prospective Liberal rival) Frank McKenna, whose blunt style and experience as an ex-politician have raised Ottawa's profile in Congress. "He's significantly improved our game down here," says a senior embassy staff member.

Harper's real challenge is to position Canada for the post-Bush era. If the Harper government lasts long enough, past the 2008 presidential elections, he may be able to secure broad national support for some of the initiatives begun tentatively by the Liberals, such as stronger continental security arrangements, strengthening the North American Free Trade Agreement and developing a North American partnership with the U.S. and Mexico. Canada West Foundation's Gibbins predicts that once Harper escapes the shadow of identification with Bush Administration neocons, "he can lead the way to a genuine improvement in the relationship."

Harper's foreign-affairs record will be judged on his ability to manage Canada's north-south relationship. But it was no coincidence that at his first postelection press conference, he noted that he had received congratulatory calls from Mexican President Vicente Fox, British Prime Minister Tony Blair and Australian Prime Minister John Howard--as well as Bush. With plans to pump C$5.3 billion more into Canada's military over five years as well as add to foreign aid, Harper hopes to preside over a revival of Canada's modest role as a player in world affairs. For a leader who has rarely traveled beyond Canada's borders, that would be an impressive achievement.