The Meaning of Harper

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And there's little reason to expect much help from the Liberals. Outgoing Environment Minister Stphane Dion says his party will cooperate, but only to a point. "I know Canadians don't want an election soon," Dion says. "At the same time, Mr. Harper needs to understand that we cannot stand up and vote for things we think are detrimental to Canada and Canadians." Tory veteran John Crosbie is advising Harper to expect the worst from the Grits. "You can never take your eyes off them," says Crosbie, a former M.P. from St. John's, Nfld., who served in the Mulroney and Clark administrations. "They will go for the government's gonads whenever they see the opportunity."

The Harper era's success may depend on Harper's ability to muster the passion and conviction to sell his vision of Canada's future to an electorate that gave him a mixed-message mandate. That's a tall order for an intensely private man who once hated even the thought of public life and who still lends himself to easy caricature. He allowed photographers to follow him as he walked his two children--Benjamin, 9, and Rachel, 7--to school near the opposition leader's house at Stornoway, only to attract titters from Canadian sophisticates at the pictures of him politely shaking his son's hand. Conservatives maintain the public will warm to Harper. "He's going to bring a different tone at the top, a tone of respect and a different kind of zeal and energy about the country," says former Alberta Treasurer Jim Dinning. For now, he has already telegraphed change in five big areas:

1. A Tilt To The Right
The Conservative victory was due in part to disenchantment with the Liberals. But under the deft hand of Tory tacticians, Harper morphed from the scary image drawn by his rivals before the June 2004 vote into a middle-of-the-road politician. And his party's minority status should ensure that he won't venture too far from the center of Canadian politics--at least for the life of the coming Parliament.

But the "center" has been redefined by Harper's win. The popularity of such Conservative campaign pledges as strengthening the military and reducing the gst from 7% to 5% suggests that the mainstream has already shifted rightward. As in other Western industrial powers, traditional support in Canada for government social spending is now tempered by worries about high taxes, devalued retirement portfolios and personal financial security--particularly in the bulging boomer generation whose oldest members are entering their 60s. Canada's center-left political parties have taken note of the trend: the Boxing Day shooting in Toronto left even the New Democrats scrambling to articulate a tough-on-crime policy. Jason Clemens, an economist at the conservative Fraser Institute, predicts that Harper will have little trouble passing his populist legislative agenda, which includes, among other things, the proposed sales-tax cuts and direct child-care payments of C$1,200 to families for each child under age 6. If, as expected, the polls turn up sustained postelection backing for such measures, Harper will "get wide support across the board, from all parties," Clemens says.

That doesn't mean Canada is moving in the same anti-Big Government direction as, say, the U.S. At least two-thirds of Canadian voters cast their votes for the left-tilting Liberals, N.D.P. or Bloc Quebecois. But according to Ottawa pollster Frank Graves of EKOS Research, Canadians are increasingly inclined to take a gourmet approach to politics--picking policies that suit their shifting tastes, regardless of ideology. "More and more people don't want a political label," says Graves. And if Harper can manage government well over the expected short life of the next Parliament, they may be ready to reward him with majority support for a made-in-Canada conservative vision.

2. Boring (But Clean)
The Federal Accountability Act is item No. 1 on the Tories' list of campaign priorities. The long-mooted set of initiatives, which includes stringent controls over lobbying and government appointments and stricter limits on campaign contributions, could be tabled fairly quickly in the new House of Commons, which may begin sitting in mid-March. Given the lingering anger over the sponsorship scandal, says former Reform Party leader Preston Manning, "I can't see anybody in that Parliament voting against that in principle." The bill's final form, though, will have to take into account the recommendations in Justice John Gomery's second report, due this week--a point reiterated by Harper at his first postelection press conference.