Finding himself one moment a rebel, the next the de facto ruler of Ethiopia, Meles Zenawi allowed himself a wry comment during a press conference in London last week. Asked about the banner hanging behind him, a red flag emblazoned with the image of an AK-47, the modern guerrilla's weapon of choice, the leader of the Ethiopian People's Revolutionary Democratic Front smiled. "I suppose we won't use the Kalashnikov anymore," he said, giving voice to widespread hopes that the decades of civil war in Ethiopia were finally over.
But Meles spoke too soon. Within 24 hours his soldiers, who had just taken over the capital of Addis Ababa, were again firing their guns. This time they battled not government forces but thousands of civilians who had taken to the streets to protest the sudden ascendancy of Meles' maverick band. It was a curious reaction, considering that Meles' troops had deposed Mengistu Haile Mariam, the onetime lieutenant colonel who had ruled Ethiopia for 14 bloody years. The demonstrations and crackdowns left at least 10 dead and an additional 400 wounded.
To be fair, it could have been worse, as it has been elsewhere. The recent fall of governments in Liberia and Somalia invited spasms of bloodletting that make the tumult in Ethiopia look like a tiff between friends. Still, the unrest in Addis Ababa laid bare the factional divisions that continue to plague Ethiopia, a country that has 70 ethnic groups and at least as many different languages. Holding together the country, or what remains of it, will be as daunting a task for the new regime as it was for the fallen one.
The Democratic Front's saunter into Addis Ababa was not really part of anyone's plan, including the rebels'. Early last week the organization -- along with guerrilla groups representing Eritrean and Oromo rebels -- met with officials of the teetering central government for U.S.-brokered peace talks in London. The negotiations were made urgent by rebel pushes that put the Democratic Front just outside the capital and the Eritreans in command of all of Eritrea province. These advances prompted Mengistu to flee to Zimbabwe two weeks ago. After just a day, the parties were on the verge of agreeing to a cease-fire and a broadly based provisional government that would prepare the country for free elections.
But before the deal could be signed and implemented, the regime of Mengistu's handpicked successor, Tesfaye Gebre-Kidan, imploded. Government troops turned on one another. Soldiers wantonly looted state property. Desperate, Tesfaye summoned Robert Houdek, the U.S. charge d'affaires in Addis Ababa, to tell him he could no longer control the situation. The interim Ethiopian leader promised he would issue a unilateral cease-fire and tell the people of the capital to welcome the rebels into the city.
Tesfaye never followed through on his second pledge, but he did proclaim a cease-fire before seeking asylum at the Italian embassy. At that point, Herman Cohen, U.S. Assistant Secretary of State for African Affairs, announced in London that the U.S. was "recommending" that the Democratic Front enter Addis Ababa quickly "to stabilize the situation." The front obliged.