(3 of 4)
The Eritrean leaders, however, have no interest in Ethiopia's governance but simply want to break away from the country. Established as an Italian colony in 1890, Eritrea expected nationhood after World War II but was instead federated with Ethiopia in 1952 at the recommendation of the United Nations. In 1962 the Eritrean parliament voted for full unification amid reports of bribery and intimidation of its members by the government of Emperor Haile Selassie.
In the weeks before Mengistu fled, when the Americans were trying to persuade him that the country would not unravel if he stepped down, the Eritreans said they were willing to postpone their independence vote, perhaps for several years. But once victory was secured, they wasted no time asserting their secessionist agenda. In a press conference last week, Issaias Afewerki, leader of the Eritrean People's Liberation Front, stated baldly, "Eritrea is not part of Ethiopia." He added that his group would administer the province until a vote on Eritrea's status is held, a plebiscite the front is convinced will endorse secession.
Many non-Eritreans oppose the province's independence for economic as well as nationalistic reasons. Without Eritrea, with its long Red Sea coast, Ethiopia would be landlocked. International food aid, essential in combating famine when the rains fail, enters the country primarily through the Eritrean ports of Massawa and Assab. The Eritreans have pledged that they will permit goods to flow freely through their territory, but many Ethiopians wonder whether they can trust such promises from a group that has fought Addis Ababa for three decades.
For now, the Democratic Front's position on Eritrea is much like Washington's: it endorses the right of the Eritreans to their referendum but wants a unified Ethiopia and so hopes that the vote, if held, goes against secession. As the day of reckoning approaches, tensions between the two groups may erupt. Already, there are strains between Meles and Issaias, who have been friends for 16 years. Issaias is upset that Meles succumbed to U.S. pressure to promise elections within a year. Meles is angry that Issaias reneged on his original pledge to participate in the transitional government to be established by July 1.
Then there is the problem of the Oromos, who form the largest group of all in Ethiopia. The Oromo Liberation Front was annoyed that while the Tigreans marched into the capital, they were left on the sidelines. Though the front, with only 7,000 fighters, is militarily insignificant, the Oromo constitute 40% of the country's 51 million people. The Oromo rebels are pressing their demands for a referendum on either autonomy or independence for the southern provinces, their heartland. That call has done nothing to ease long-standing suspicions between the Oromo and Tigrean groups, who have clashed in the past.