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But it is not just Japan that needs to face up to the realities of its increasing power. The U.S. must encourage Japan's participation in world affairs, consulting its leaders more frequently on foreign events, insisting that the next president of the World Bank be Japanese, perhaps even campaigning for a permanent seat for Tokyo on the U.N. Security Council. While the World Bank has always been headed by an American, that tradition makes little sense at a time when the Japanese are the largest investors in the bank's bonds.
Ultimately, there are limits to how far Japan can advance as a superpower, and limits to how far the U.S. can retrench. Japan cannot assume a major military role against the opposition of its neighbors and most of its own citizens. Nor can the U.S. abandon the position it has occupied for the past 40 years as the world's only military and economic superpower. No other nation has the capability to replace Washington as the West's chief guarantor of prosperity and peace.
Global security requires more than missiles and warplanes: it also requires solvency and a sense of mission. Since World War II, Japan has enjoyed the protection of the U.S. and the freedom to grow at its own pace and in its own way. "It has really been very convenient and comfortable," says Paul Kennedy. "They like the idea of things being as they are." But Japan the protege is on the verge of becoming Japan the equal partner, and how Tokyo and Washington handle that relationship will affect the economic well-being and security of the world well into the next century.