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Memory is a constant constraint on Japanese actions: neither the overwhelming majority of Japanese nor their neighbors want the country to become a military power again. "Everyone would be a little afraid," says Nimit Nontaponthawat, chief economist at Thailand's Bangkok Bank. "We still can't trust the Japanese 100%." Observes Reinhardt Drifte, a leading European expert on Asian security affairs: "We should consider very carefully when we ask the Japanese to shoulder a greater defense burden. I'm worried that one day people will wake up and discover that a major military power has been created in the region."
Japan's Self-Defense Forces are already formidable -- at least on paper. By 1990, when a five-year rebuilding program ends, the forces will have 180,000 troops, 1,205 tanks, 163 F-15 fighter planes, 100 antisubmarine warfare planes and 16 submarines. Tokyo will have more frigates than Britain. All that firepower is designed to repel a limited attack before U.S. help arrives. Since such an attack could come only from the Soviet Union, the Japanese forces could serve as a critical line of defense if a conventional U.S.-Soviet conflict spilled over to Asia.
Article 9 of Japan's Constitution, written with U.S. guidance, renounces war and the "threat or use of force" to settle international conflicts. That has led to endless discussions whenever new hardware is considered. "The Japanese have great debates over what is an offensive and what is a defense weapon, such as over-the-horizon radar," says Nathaniel Thayer, director of Asian studies at the Johns Hopkins School for Advanced International Studies. "It is like a theological dispute in the Middle Ages."
Last year the Japanese lifted their self-imposed limit of spending no more than 1% of their GNP on defense. But Tokyo has not strayed far from that guideline; the 1988 defense budget accounts for 1.013% of GNP. The U.S. Congress voted overwhelmingly last year to urge Japan to triple its defense spending, to 3% of GNP. The idea appeals to many Americans: the U.S. spends about 6% of GNP on defense, and part of that goes to protecting Japan from possible nuclear and conventional attacks. But Carlucci said in Tokyo that he saw no need for "dramatic leaps" in Japanese defense spending. He added: "I would not know how to tell them how to spend it within the roles and missions we have agreed upon."
For its part, Japan now pays 40% of the annual $6 billion cost of keeping 60,000 U.S. troops on Japanese soil, a marked improvement since 1980, when the U.S. picked up nearly the entire bill. But further initiatives may be limited. When the Persian Gulf conflict threatened Japanese oil shipments last year, Tokyo could not launch an effective response. Former Prime Minister Yasuhiro Nakasone reportedly wanted to send patrol ships to protect Japanese vessels but backed down under heavy domestic pressure. Tokyo settled instead for such moves as increased financial support for U.N. peace-seeking efforts and aid to Omani farmers in the embattled region.