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U.S. intelligence sources, similarly, do not believe that the Mujahedin enjoy sufficient popular support to take over. "They can obviously disrupt and terrorize, but whether they have an alternative program and leadership to offer is far from clear," says one expert. Washington, in any event, has no illusions about its ability to influence events in Iran. "We have an interest in Iran as a buffer to Soviet expansion," an Administration official explains. "But at this point, all we can do is sit back and wait to see what happens." Although Moscow has consistently supported Khomeini, the Soviets are in a similar quandary. Pravda reported the Raja'i-Bahonar killings factually and tersely—a sign that the Kremlin is keeping its options open. The Palestine Liberation Organization is caught between its initial attraction to Khomeini, who has steadily supported the Palestinian cause, and the Mujahedin, whose secular views are closer to its own. Hani al-Hassan, a top adviser to P.L.O. Leader Yasser Arafat, visited Rajavi in France last week.
The current impasse, according to Banisadr, can be broken only if Khomeini makes good on his original promise to support a democratic regime that offers basic liberties to all citizens. "That would at least allow for the possibility of a reconciliation among the different tendencies, and for a government that could govern," says Banisadr. There is little chance, however, of the stubborn octogenarian's backing down, nor is there any individual or group that could unite the divided Iranians. The army is generally considered the most cohesive force in the country, but it is hopelessly bogged down in the border war with Iraq, now a year old, and its ranks are split very much as the country is as a whole. Paradoxically, even the ailing Khomeini's opponents realize that his death might precipitate the very worst scenario. Predicts Banisadr: "It could provoke a terrible civil war."
—By Henry Muller. Reported by Raji Samghabadi/New York and William Stewart/Beirut