Who Will Lead Them Now?

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If the U.S. pushes at all, it will push the Palestinians, not Sharon if the cadre of top advisers who have prevailed on most Arab-Israeli issues during Bush's first term has its way. Led by Vice President Dick Cheney, the advisers argue that Sharon is the man with the plan, so the best thing the U.S. can do is stay out of his way and support him if he asks for help. In Sharon's office, no one thinks a new set of Palestinian leaders will do what Arafat couldn't: dismantle the terrorist organizations. They might wear suits instead of fatigues and tone down the "revolution to victory" rhetoric, but Israelis still don't trust them. Privately, Israeli officials expect that the moderates' tenure will prove transitory. In any case, Sharon remains fundamentally less interested in negotiating a final settlement with a Palestinian partner than in setting in stone security for Israel on his own terms. And the Prime Minister, says an aide to Sharon, does not anticipate a burst of pressure from the Bush Administration to change course now. He took Bush's comments last week as a green light to continue his plan to withdraw Israeli settlers from the Gaza Strip and parts of the West Bank unilaterally rather than enter into new negotiations with the Palestinians. "The Palestinian Authority doesn't become an automatic partner," says the aide, "just because it's conducting elections."

That puts the burden squarely on the Palestinians to turn themselves into a model partner before the U.S. or Israel will stretch out a hand. Yet the Palestinians need help diplomatic encouragement, money, a confidence-building concession or two to take a new direction. Opportunities for peace have been squandered time and again by refusals to take risks. If anything good is to come from Arafat's death, it will require everyone involved to cut through that knot.