Who Will Lead Them Now?

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Although the U.S. and Israel considered Arafat an obstacle, he was, for good or ill, the glue that held the pieces of Palestinian political life together. But his one-man rule crippled the development of potential successors and institutions that could provide stability after him. Now his death leaves a vacuum that could be filled by hard-line nationalists, warlords and terrorists. The dozen-plus security organs that Arafat set up have fought one another for dominance. In Gaza, a policy of armed resistance and generous social services has made Hamas the power to be reckoned with, whether or not it participates in elections. Some West Bank cities, cut off from central authority, have degenerated into separate fiefs.

Abbas and Qurei hold the loyalty of the secular Old Guard, but they are nearing their 70s. A younger generation is clamoring for power, including reformers who want a more open, honest government and militants who earned their spurs fighting Israel. Though locked up in an Israeli prison, Marwan Barghouti, 44, leader of Fatah in the West Bank, is the most popular figure there after Arafat. His word from the cell block could help or hurt new leaders. Another rising star, Mohammed Dahlan, 43, former head of preventive security in Gaza, has street cred, the loyalty of members of the Palestinian Authority's influential security services and close relations with the U.S.

Everyone eager to change the conflict's dynamic looks to the U.S. to step in with decisive influence. But the Bush team is still debating how to proceed. European allies and State Department Middle East hands argue that Washington should swing into action boldly, pushing for a full range of talks on all the thorny issues. They say the best way to strengthen moderate Palestinian leaders is for the U.S. to be clear about what the Palestinians will get if they make peace. Last June, an official involved tells TIME, Qurei and other top officials met quietly with National Security Adviser Condoleezza Rice in Berlin to push for progress toward Palestinian statehood. "They said, 'Why can't we jump to final status talks and start negotiating borders?'" says the official. Rice, according to the official, replied, "We're sitting in Germany. Its borders were settled in 1991, but by then it was a successful, democratic country. That's what you need to think about: building successful institutions of democracy."

That, says a White House official, is Bush's approach now. He's extremely wary of rushing into the fray before the Palestinians solidify a new order. He will sit back, talk up elections, offer commitments of aid and support if the Palestinians develop democratic institutions, and see how they do. In the short run, says the official, overt support for moderates would fatally discredit them in Palestinian eyes. In any case, the Administration believes that Arafat left Palestinians unprepared to make the concessions required to attain statehood, like restrictions of the number of returning refugees, limited control of Jerusalem and the loss of part of the West Bank. Bush's decision to play it cool for now was a bitter pill for Blair, who went to Washington hoping the U.S. would pay back his unpopular solidarity in Iraq with more assertive peacemaking in Jerusalem. Blair wants to give the Palestinians momentum, but Bush told him, "What we don't want to do is push too far too fast."