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Within three decades, machines will be as intelligent as humans. By 2030 the available computer hardware will exceed the memory and processing capacity of the human brain by a factor of thousands. Though raw capacity alone does not automatically provide human levels of intelligence, we will have largely completed the reverse engineering of the human brain. Powerful, biologically inspired models based on the various templates of human intelligence will be capable of simulating human thought processes and will ultimately do so at far greater speeds and with far greater overall capacity than unaided human thought.
So what would a thousand simulated scientists and engineers, each with a thousand times greater memory and each thinking at speeds at least a thousand times faster than today's human inventors, accomplish? What would they invent? Well, for one thing, they would invent technologies that would allow them to become even more intelligent (because their intelligence is no longer of fixed capacity). They would change their own thought processes to think "bigger" and more complex thoughts--and to think them faster. When and if these "inventors" evolve to be a million times more intelligent and operate a million times faster, then in today's terms, an hour would result in a century of progress.
THE NEXT QUESTION Which, of course, brings up the issue of how we mere human inventors are going to keep up. As an inventor, I have more than a passing interest in this question. My view, however, is that these developments do not represent an alien invasion of intelligent machines. They are emerging from within our human/machine civilization, and the intelligence we are creating is both derivative of and an extension to our human intelligence. We are already placing today's generation of intelligent machines in our bodies and brains, particularly for those with disabilities (e.g., cochlear implants for the deaf) and diseases (e.g., neural implants for Parkinson's patients). By 2030 there will be ubiquitous use of surgery-free neural implants introduced into our brains by billions of "nanobots" (i.e., microscopic yet intelligent robots) traveling through our capillaries. These noninvasive neural implants will routinely expand our mind through direct connection with nonbiological intelligence.
These prospects will bring enormous benefits, such as vastly expanded wealth, longevity and knowledge. We will have the ability to overcome most diseases, clean up the environment and alleviate illiteracy and poverty. However, deeply intertwined with these gains will be profound new risks. New concerns will include such questions as "Who is controlling the nanobots?" and "Whom are the nanobots talking to?" For example, organizations (e.g., governments, extremist groups) could distribute trillions of undetectable nanobots that could then monitor, influence or even control our thoughts and actions. Nanobot self-replication run amuck could have the potential to create a nonbiological cancer. And as for intelligent robots, how can we be sure they will remain our faithful servants, or even our friends?