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GBN's most egregious failure came out of a round-table discussion that it convened in Mexico in 1994 at which the experts all waxed optimistic about the country's future. The three scenarios they devised were Good, Better and Best. None saw the financial crisis and collapse of the peso that hit three weeks later. Again, Schwartz had failed to follow his own rule: always challenge conventional wisdom.
Which is not his problem these days. Contrary to politicians on both sides of the blue-red divide, Schwartz says no amount of spending on homeland security will stop another terrorist attack. His best-case scenario is that we'll be smarter about limiting the spillover damage to the economy. That, at least, is something. --By Chris Taylor