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But the polls do suggest that plenty of women are in motion, and Kerry has had to struggle since the beginning of this race to win them over--a struggle he can't afford to lose, given that men back Bush over Kerry by a solid margin. Al Gore carried the women's vote by 11 percentage points in 2000, but it was still not enough to win him the White House. "Both parties have had a gender gap--Democrats with men and Republicans with women," says Bush campaign manager Ken Mehlman. "At the moment, our gender gap has been fixed, and theirs hasn't."
The initial soundings from the first presidential debate brought Kerry some good news: an ABC News poll found that women gave Kerry stronger ratings than men did. A CBS poll indicated that Kerry's likability rating among undecided women had moved above the President's. But Kerry has more work to do. "We've suffered a little bit because of our focus on security," says Kerry campaign strategist Joe Lockhart. "We haven't talked enough about issues like health care that women care about." The campaign planned an immediate pivot: Kerry's speech last Saturday focused on the middle-class squeeze. "Two incomes barely cover the basics," said Kerry. "The costs of health care, gas, child care and tuition are through the roof. Personal bankruptcies are at an all-time high. And the typical family is making $1,500 less each year." These themes were meant to bring undecided women home to the party in which they have traditionally felt more comfortable. "The bottom line," says Lockhart, "is if that happens, we win the election." Unless, of course, in the process Kerry inspires even more men to head in the opposite direction.
SINCE THEY MAKE UP SLIGHTLY MORE THAN half the population and are more likely to vote than men, women have always been a target audience. In 2000 nearly 8 million more women than men went to the polls. Women become especially crucial in the last weeks of a race because they tend to decide late. According to a recent TIME poll, 61% of undecided voters are women.
But for all the commentary about the women's vote, women have never been a bloc that could be specifically targeted like tobacco growers or whale watchers. In a close race a group that large has to be sliced into identifiable targets, so that both sides can pick the most promising women to woo--old or young, married or single, the populists, the small-business owners, the social conservatives, the libertarians, the waitress moms.