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Kerry will fight back, of course, and he has some serious weaponry, as the controversy over George W. Bush's National Guard service has shown. The Senator's military service, and his cavalcade of veterans, has real resonance with average folks, especially those whose sons and daughters are serving in Iraq. In Wisconsin he won the blue-collar vote--as he has throughout his career. His aides look forward to a game of "Who's the Real Phony?" with the President, who is, after all, a graduate of Yale, and Harvard, a member of Skull and Bones, a lifetime beneficiary of connections from a family far more affluent than Kerry's. And all this from a fellow who would have you believe that he's a plain ole country boy from Texas. Unlike Dukakis or Gore, Kerry is not averse to playing rough. He is not a particularly inspiring or compelling candidate, but he will be a very tough one--and toughness is one of those intangibles that pundits, amateur or professional, find exceedingly hard to judge.